8512 144th Ave E #44 · Alderton, WA 98372

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition $96/sqft · 42% below area Est $309k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled home in desirable Lone Cedar Community! This community is 80/20 community meaning 80% of the residents are 55+ and 20% can be under 55 of age. This spacious residence features two large living room with a fireplace, offering exceptional flexibility and comfort. Enjoy relaxing on the private deck with a stunning views of Mount Rainier, plus the convenience of a two-car garage. Move in ready with modern updates through out and located close to shopping, dining and major routes.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Two car garage
• Remodeled home

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• PRIVATE DECK
• TWO CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.5% in Alderton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#269 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $180k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.63%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,255
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -41.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $35,541
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $126,557
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98372

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3114 Highlands Blvd Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1905	$3,300	$1.73	18d	1	0.71mi
3107 E Main Ave Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,622	$2.72	2d	30	1.32mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $180,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
16. 2025-04-14
    status Pending
17. 2025-04-04
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,666
• − Management: −$2,666
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $9,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $9,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled home in Lone Cedar Community is move-in ready with modern updates throughout. It offers spacious living areas, a two-car garage, and a private deck with stunning views of Mount Rainier.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Resale Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alderton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #9357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alderton, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,012
• Household income: $98,152
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 871.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 6% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.81%
• Current HPI: 309.7871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+260.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $180,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Listed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid