3873 Giorgio Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$274,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · Land · 268 Days on market

Built 2025 5,500 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Aug 2025! Open floor plan creates a unified living space with a large great room that overlooks the kitchen. Visit Villamar and explore new single-family homes for sale in Winter Haven, FL. Residents will have access to two resort-style amenity centers featuring a clubhouse, pool, and playground. Winter Haven is known for its beautiful chain of lakes with lakeside restaurants and its award-winning community theater. Nearby attractions include Legoland Florida and Peppa Pig Theme Park. A brand-new model and new phase are coming soon. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enj

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Amenity centers
• Clubhouse

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT ROOM
• AMENITY CENTERS
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,606 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-52,398
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-62,336
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,073/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $259,980

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4981 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,875	$1.48	19d	1	0.02mi
4973 Kaia Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	3d	1	0.03mi
3889 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.03mi
3912 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,900	$1.28	21d	1	0.05mi
3905 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,050	$1.20	3d	1	0.06mi
3916 Giorgio Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	3d	1	0.06mi
6472 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,300	$1.09	23d	1	0.12mi
6428 Domizio Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,200	$1.04	23d	1	0.16mi
3436 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,750	$1.16	3d	1	0.16mi
3511 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2234	$2,100	$0.94	23d	1	0.17mi
3412 Costello Cir Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2540	$2,500	$0.98	23d	1	0.20mi
6204 Botticella Blvd Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2280	$2,350	$1.03	3d	1	0.22mi
2772 San Marco Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	23d	1	0.31mi
4506 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1754	$1,899	$1.08	23d	1	0.32mi
4458 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.5	1568	$2,000	$1.28	23d	1	0.36mi
4442 Rapallo Ave Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	23d	1	0.38mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	14d	1	0.46mi
3063 Laurel Oak Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,695	$1.34	23d	1	0.46mi
2107 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,600	$1.17	23d	1	0.55mi
2116 Cartgate Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.56mi
1734 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,050	$1.45	23d	1	0.57mi
1735 Carnostie Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,900	$1.25	23d	1	0.58mi
632 Vittorio Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1597	$1,895	$1.19	23d	1	0.65mi
1310 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1964	$2,500	$1.27	23d	1	0.68mi
1343 Benevento Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,000	$1.08	14d	1	0.69mi
1002 Corso Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,945	$1.26	23d	1	0.73mi
397 Corso Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,395	$1.29	3d	1	0.86mi
850 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1770	$2,176	$1.23	3d	1	0.96mi
810 Terranova Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$1,900	$0.92	23d	1	0.97mi
554 Reddicks Cir Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	10d	1	1.06mi
670 Eagle Landing Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,999	$1.35	3d	1	1.17mi
219 Cloverdale Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,300	$1.24	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $274,990 Pending 268 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,990 Active 267 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 266 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 265 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $274,990 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $274,990 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   status $274,990 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
10. 2026-04-02
    price $274,990
11. 2026-03-21
    price $289,990
12. 2026-02-19
    price $299,990
13. 2025-11-04
    price $317,390
14. 2025-09-15
    price $314,390
15. 2025-08-13
    price $317,390
16. 2025-07-22
    listed $342,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,073 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,073 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,073
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $274,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $317,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $314,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $317,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Listed $342,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid