103 Orchid Ct · Poinciana, FL 34759

$279,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · Land · 353 Days on market

Built 2026 7,048 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! Located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the heart of Poinciana, this thoughtfully designed home offers the perfect blend of comfort, function, and smart living. A split-bedroom layout ensures privacy, with two spacious secondary bedrooms situated off the foyer and separated by a full bath. An extra linen closet just outside the bathroom adds convenient storage. Upgraded ceramic tile flooring extends through the main living areas, with soft carpet reserved for the bedrooms. The open-concept kitchen features a large island ideal for meal prep and casual gatherings, and comes equipped with a full suite of appliances—including an ENERGY STAR® certified side-by-side refrigerator. T

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Extra linen closet

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• EXTRA LINEN CLOSET
• UPGRADED CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 1,443 sq ft (builder source); total building area 1,880 sq ft; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (about 655 m²); Directions available
• HOA & community: HOA required (Care of Maronda Homes) — $90 monthly; Community amenities: pool, fitness center, park, playground, dog park; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x20)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing; New construction; Completed condition; PUD zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Other roof material; Slab foundation; Built by Maronda Homes (model: Violet L)
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Located on a paved cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen/family room combo; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds and insulated ENERGY STAR windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 409 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $280k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,870 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-58,095
• Equity at exit: $61,212

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-83,419
• Equity at exit: $58,991

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,563

Max offer price $217,743

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
99 Orchid Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$1,900	$1.11	14d	1	0.12mi
29 Orchid Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,890	$1.13	3d	1	0.16mi
3 Magnolia Blossom Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	19d	1	0.21mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	23d	1	0.25mi
108 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,000	$1.24	14d	1	0.26mi
107 Lily Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	23d	1	0.32mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	3d	1	0.36mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	3d	1	0.38mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	3d	1	0.38mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	23d	1	0.41mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	14d	1	0.41mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	3d	1	0.41mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	23d	1	0.43mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	3d	1	0.44mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	3d	1	0.44mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	14d	1	0.45mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	23d	1	0.49mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	3d	1	0.58mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.59mi
2129 Hibiscus Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	0.60mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	3d	1	0.60mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	3d	1	0.62mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	0.63mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	23d	1	0.64mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	0.68mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	14d	1	0.70mi
344 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,825	$1.09	3d	1	0.71mi
337 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,980	$1.19	14d	1	0.75mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	3d	1	0.75mi
1560 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	23d	1	0.86mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	0.86mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.87mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,390	$1.32	3d	1	0.87mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$1,695	$1.13	2d	1	0.90mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.91mi
1786 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.92mi
1601 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,550	$1.68	10d	1	0.93mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	3d	1	0.94mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	23d	1	0.97mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $279,990
3. 2026-03-12
   price $269,990
4. 2026-02-13
   price $284,990
5. 2026-01-26
   price $299,990
6. 2025-09-29
   price $309,990
7. 2025-09-16
   price $293,990
8. 2025-07-25
   price $299,990
9. 2025-05-16
   listed $294,990 Active
10. 2025-05-08
    soldstatus $65,000
11. 2025-03-04
    historical
12. 2025-02-13
    listed $73,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$10,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+283.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $279,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $284,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $293,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $294,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Listed $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $303 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.