11673 Box Elder Way · Vance, AL 35490

$279,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2008 0.34 ac lot $152/sqft · 14% above area Est $277k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this beautiful family home with a cozy front porch in the Nature Walk community in Vance. Lovely hardwood floors lead you into a spacious living room. The large kitchen opens to a screened porch. The laundry room and half bath are just off the dining area. Upstairs you will find the oversized primary suite with primary bath. Bath includes shower, large soaker tub and double sinks. Three additional bedrooms and full bath are also located on the second floor. One of the rooms is quite large and would make a perfect playroom, media room or shared bedroom. The fenced back yard is a wonderful spot for children or fur babies to run and play. Nature Walk Park, playground and baseball fields just a short walking distance away. This home comes partially furnished!!

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Laundry room
• Screened porch

Tags

• COZY FRONT PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SCREENED PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,307 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,135
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: 1.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11681 Box Elder Way	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,872 (+2%)	1mo	$276,900	$148	88
11463 Walden Trce	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-4%)	8mo	$250,000	$141	80
11621 Cedar Glades Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,747 (-5%)	10mo	$281,000	$161	75
11382 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-4%)	12mo	$284,900	$161	68
11388 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-4%)	12mo	$285,000	$161	66
17847 Alecia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-10%)	1mo	$289,900	$176	65
17818 Alecia Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,693 (-8%)	11mo	$274,000	$162	64
17848 Alecia Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-10%)	2mo	$289,900	$176	64
17917 April Leigh Cir	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-4%)	12mo	$284,900	$161	64
17811 Alecia Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (-11%)	12mo	$250,000	$152	58
17865 Alecia Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-10%)	10mo	$279,500	$169	55
11481 Big Sandy Springs Rd	0.54mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,100 (+14%)	5mo	$377,500	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $136,217
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $413,615
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,686/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,184

Max offer price $235,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-174	+0% $-253	+5% $-332	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-327	+0% $-253	+5% $-180	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-182	base $-253	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11565 Cedar Glades Dr Vance, AL	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,661	$1.03	12d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $279,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    price $285,000 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Come see this beautiful family home with a cozy front porch in the Nature Walk community in Vance. Lovely hardwood floors lead you into a spacious living room. The large kitchen opens to a screened porch. The laundry room and half bath are just off the dining area. Upstairs you will find the oversized primary suite with primary bath. Bath includes shower, large soaker tub and double sinks. Three additional bedrooms and full bath are also located on the second floor. One of the rooms is quite large and would make a perfect playroom, media room or shared bedroom. The fenced back yard is a wonderful spot for children or fur babies to run and play. Nature Walk Park, playground and baseball fields just a short walking distance away. This home comes partially furnished!!

20. 2026-04-20
    price $290,000 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Come see this beautiful family home with a cozy front porch in the Nature Walk community in Vance. Lovely hardwood floors lead you into a spacious living room. The large kitchen opens to a screened porch. The laundry room and half bath are just off the dining area. Upstairs you will find the oversized primary suite with primary bath. Bath includes shower, large soaker tub and double sinks. Three additional bedrooms and full bath are also located on the second floor. One of the rooms is quite large and would make a perfect playroom, media room or shared bedroom. The fenced back yard is a wonderful spot for children or fur babies to run and play. Nature Walk Park, playground and baseball fields just a short walking distance away. This home comes partially furnished!!

21. 2026-04-06
    listed $299,000 Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Come see this beautiful family home with a cozy front porch in the Nature Walk community in Vance. Lovely hardwood floors lead you into a spacious living room. The large kitchen opens to a screened porch. The laundry room and half bath are just off the dining area. Upstairs you will find the oversized primary suite with primary bath. Bath includes shower, large soaker tub and double sinks. Three additional bedrooms and full bath are also located on the second floor. One of the rooms is quite large and would make a perfect playroom, media room or shared bedroom. The fenced back yard is a wonderful spot for children or fur babies to run and play. Nature Walk Park, playground and baseball fields just a short walking distance away. This home comes partially furnished!!

22. 2024-03-25
    soldstatus $260,000
23. 2024-03-21
    soldstatus $260,000 Sold 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

24. 2024-03-19
    status Pending 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

25. 2024-03-06
    price $260,000 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

26. 2024-03-05
    status Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

27. 2024-02-10
    historical Contingent 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

28. 2024-02-02
    status Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

29. 2024-01-26
    historical Contingent 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

30. 2024-01-21
    listed $269,000 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Back on the market at no fault of sellers!! NEW PRICE!!! Schedule your showing today. Discover charm personified in this bungalow with blue siding and a cozy front porch. Inside, enjoy hardwood floors, a warm gas fireplace, and bright, neutral interiors. The spacious kitchen boasts solid wood cabinets, dual pantries, and room for an island. A large laundry room includes a sink for convenience. Upstairs, the master suite offers tranquility, while three additional bedrooms provide ample space, with one perfect as a playroom or media center. The large, fenced backyard and sunroom are standout features in the neighborhood. This home is a beautifully maintained gem that's sure to capture your heart!

31. 2021-01-14
    soldstatus $215,000
32. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus $215,000
33. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus $215,000
34. 2020-07-21
    listed $222,000
35. 2020-05-28
    listed $215,000
36. 2019-09-13
    soldstatus $219,000
37. 2019-09-11
    soldstatus $219,000
38. 2019-07-08
    listed $219,000
39. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus $197,500
40. 2017-07-28
    soldstatus $197,500
41. 2017-06-30
    listed $197,500
42. 2009-04-13
    soldstatus $184,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,686
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+54.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $285,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $290,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $299,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-21 Sold (MLS) $260,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-03-19 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $260,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-03-05 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-02-10 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-02-02 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-01-26 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-01-21 Listed $269,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-01-14 Sold (MLS) $215,000 WAMLS
• 2020-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-14 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-07-21 Listed $222,000 WAMLS
• 2020-05-28 Listed $215,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-11 Sold (MLS) $219,000 WAMLS
• 2019-07-08 Listed $219,000 WAMLS
• 2017-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 2017-07-28 Sold (MLS) $197,500 WAMLS
• 2017-06-30 Listed $197,500 WAMLS
• 2009-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $184,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,686 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.