25 Falcon Cir · Monticello, GA 31064

$329,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1988 0.43 ac lot Est $344k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable & inviting home in Turtle Cove. 5 bedroom/3bath. 3 week old roof! Butcher block countertops in kitchen. Remodeled baths with waterproof flooring. Real hardwood in kitchen, living room, and hall. Large master bedroom, walk-in closet, & tile bath with double head shower. Finished basement could be used for entertaining or extra bedroom. Great neutral paint colors. Newer deck, fenced-in backyard with out building. You will love this precious home.

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property offers eligible for Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA financing; Subject to covenants/restrictions
• Financial info: Association initiation fee
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee (includes management and security); Community amenities: clubhouse, golf, lake, park, playground, pool, shared dock; Subdivision: Turtle Cove

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Parking pad; Open parking for about 4 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); Two levels; Resale property; Built in 1988
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built in 1988
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck; Backyard fencing (fenced); Level lot; Lake privileges (Jackson Lake); Outbuilding and workshop on property; Shared dock access

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Solid surface counters; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total (3 on main level, 2 on lower level)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on main level, 1 on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Roommate floor plan; Split bedroom plan; Walk-in closets; Fireplace (1); Daylight, finished full basement with exterior and interior entry; Bonus room, family room, game room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry areas on upper level, mud room, and in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 29%, grade F, #673 of 1,228 statewide, top 55%, 564 students, 60% FRL); Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 74% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $330k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Waxwing Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,450 (-7%)	4mo	$369,000	$151	56
128 Turtle Cove Trailway	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,306 (-13%)	1mo	$299,000	$130	50
81 Hummingbird Dr	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,284 (-14%)	10mo	$295,000	$129	44
76 Killdeer Ln Lot 34	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,306 (-13%)	6mo	$290,000	$126	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $201,310
• Equity at exit: $297,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $575,785
• Equity at exit: $640,923

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31064

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,418/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,769

Max offer price $329,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
682 E Mourning Dove Ct Monticello, GA	4.0	3.0	3332	$3,199	$0.96	10d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 326-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $329,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,418 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,418 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,418
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,071
• − Management: −$3,071
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$1,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $4,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County
• NCES district ID: 1302970
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,606
• Composite: 22.99/100
• National rank: #7980
• State rank: #113 of 174 in GA

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #2229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,020 people
• By 2030: 12,538 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,355 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 9,955 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 6,646 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 4,022 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.6% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.00%
• Current HPI: 420.9288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+411.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Coming Soon $329,900 GAMLS
• 2021-03-12 Sold (MLS) $190,000 MGMLS
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $190,000 GAMLS
• 2020-11-17 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-11-13 Listed $190,000 MGMLS
• 2020-11-13 Listed $190,000 GAMLS
• 2003-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,418 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.