6238 Warrior River Rd · Concord, AL 35023

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 898 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1941 0.32 ac lot $139/sqft · 16% below area Est $149k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

High Growth Opportunity!! Nearby to the recently approved multi-billiion dollar tech and data center development. Enjoy the peace, privacy and acreage of country living while being minutes away from Birmingham downtown and McCalla. Perfect midway point between Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. Situated on a generous lot, this property presents an opportunity for renovation, rental income, or a starter project for those looking to add value. Investor special with solid upside potential. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout featuring a living area, an open kitchen with eat-in space, and a spacious laundry/utility room. Look no further this property won't be around for long!

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Functional layout
• Rental income

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• OPPORTUNITY FOR RENOVATION
• RENTAL INCOME
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#266 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $114 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-750 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 30% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,464
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -16.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7600 15th Street Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	880 (-2%)	8mo	$117,500	$134	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.6% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,867
• Equity at exit: $32,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $42,005
• Equity at exit: $36,329

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35023

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $993

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $365	+0% $330	+5% $294	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $218	-5% $274	+0% $330	+5% $385	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $361	base $330	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $125,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    High Growth Opportunity!! Nearby to the recently approved multi-billiion dollar tech and data center development. Enjoy the peace, privacy and acreage of country living while being minutes away from Birmingham downtown and McCalla. Perfect midway point between Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. Situated on a generous lot, this property presents an opportunity for renovation, rental income, or a starter project for those looking to add value. Investor special with solid upside potential. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout featuring a living area, an open kitchen with eat-in space, and a spacious laundry/utility room. Look no further this property won't be around for long!

15. 2026-03-25
    listed $130,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    High Growth Opportunity!! Nearby to the recently approved multi-billiion dollar tech and data center development. Enjoy the peace, privacy and acreage of country living while being minutes away from Birmingham downtown and McCalla. Perfect midway point between Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. Situated on a generous lot, this property presents an opportunity for renovation, rental income, or a starter project for those looking to add value. Investor special with solid upside potential. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout featuring a living area, an open kitchen with eat-in space, and a spacious laundry/utility room. Look no further this property won't be around for long!

16. 2024-02-27
    historical $1,150
17. 2024-01-11
    listed $1,150
18. 2023-11-18
    historical $1,150
19. 2023-09-02
    listed $1,150
20. 2021-10-20
    soldstatus $162,000
21. 2021-08-03
    price $125,000
22. 2017-05-17
    price $49,900
23. 2017-03-29
    price $52,900
24. 2016-11-11
    price $62,900
25. 2005-03-17
    soldstatus $64,500
26. 2000-06-26
    soldstatus $56,150
27. 1997-06-17
    soldstatus $48,900
28. 1989-10-13
    soldstatus $23,908

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 30% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$487
• After-tax cash flow: $3,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Concord

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #18252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,533
• Household income: $69,863
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 247.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.60%
• Current HPI: 389.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+422.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $125,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $130,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2024-02-27 Rental Removed $1,150 GALMLS
• 2024-01-11 Listed for Rent $1,150 GALMLS
• 2023-11-18 Rental Removed $1,150 PROPERTYWARE
• 2023-09-02 Listed for Rent $1,150 PROPERTYWARE
• 2021-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-03 Price Changed $125,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-05-17 Price Changed $49,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-03-29 Price Changed $52,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-11-11 Price Changed $62,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 2000-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $56,150 Public Records
• 1997-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records
• 1989-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $23,908 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.