609 50th Ave W · South Bradenton, FL 34207

$56,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 430 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1958 2,360 sqft lot Est $63k · 9% under $135/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ FAIR LANE ACRES - YOU OWN THE LOT! No lot rent. $135 a month HOA includes water, community pool, activities, and more! Welcome to easy Florida living in this charming 2 bedroom home located in a desirable 55 plus community where you own your land and enjoy a low HOA of just $135 a month with no lot rent. This single wide home offers extra living space with an enclosed Florida room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining year round. A covered carport provides convenient parking and additional shade, while the spacious backyard offers plenty of room to garden, unwind, or enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you will find a newly updated bathroom and a fresh coat of paint throughout, giving the home

Key facts

• Sparkling clean pool
• Active clubhouse
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEWLY UPDATED BATHROOM
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• SPARKLING CLEAN POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Furnished; Third-party listing
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $135; Total annual fees $1,620
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $135; Association approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, laundry, pickleball courts, shuffleboard courts, playground; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed; Association fee includes pool, recreational facilities, sewer, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); Multi/split levels; Faces north; Fixer condition; Homesteaded
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.05 acre lot
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Chain link fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Window treatments; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 4.0% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $393 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $57k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,046 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.70%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,780
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 49th Ave W	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	410 (-5%)	5mo	$59,900	$146	79
1109 49th Avenue Dr W	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	427 (-1%)	2mo	$70,900	$166	78
1017 51st Avenue Dr W	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	440 (+2%)	5mo	$70,000	$159	72
618 51st Ave W	0.15mi	2/1.5	470 (+9%)	6mo	$66,000	$140	71
1107 49th Ave W	0.30mi	2/1.0	450 (+5%)	10mo	$55,000	$122	70
611 51st Avenue Plz W	0.19mi	2/1.0	460 (+7%)	14mo	$65,000	$141	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-4,628
• Equity at exit: $8,484

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-7,080
• Equity at exit: $4,920

Cash invested: $15,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$298
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $292/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $56,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $143	+0% $127	+5% $111	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $75	+0% $127	+5% $179	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $142	base $127	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,225
• Closing costs: $1,707
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $56,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $56,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $56,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $61,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $61,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $61,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $61,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $61,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $61,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $61,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $292 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 61.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,187
• − Property taxes: −$292
• − Insurance: −$5,403
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$1,655
• Taxable income: $1,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+169.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $61,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-12 Price Changed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-24 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $292 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.