14192 Tuolumne Rd #5 · East Sonora, CA 95370

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $77k · 22% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller! Charming and Affordable home situated in Golden Sierra Estates LLC a 55+ community. Enjoy a open concept layout combining the kitchen, dining, and living room areas - perfect for comfortable everyday living. The bathroom has been freshly painted and features a large accessible shower. A covered front porch and a carport adds extra convenience and charm. The low maintenance yard allows more time to relax and enjoy. Seller is offering a three thousand dollar credit to buyer at closing. Community offers clubhouse with laundry facilities, pool table, dinning area and fireplace. Conveniently located near shopping, dinning and other local amenities.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Low maintenance yard
• Accessible shower

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ACCESSIBLE SHOWER
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• POOL TABLE
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Mother Lode Mobile Estates (senior community); Park amenities include clubhouse, laundry, RV storage, guest parking; Park has gas metered service and requires park interview; Pets allowed with number/size limits and upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 spaces per unit; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Cable available; DSL available; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home (mobile home); Single-wide Meadow Creek model; Main entry facing street
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition shingle roof; Built on crawl space with pillar/post/pier foundation; Living area approximately 734 square feet
• Exterior features: Front yard; Porch with awning(s) and porch steps; Storage shed(s); Low-maintenance landscaping; Railed areas; Close to clubhouse; Level setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Eat-in kitchen; Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street/main entry level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (propane); Evaporative cooling; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Grab bars
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry cabinets; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $924 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#501 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.08%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14192 Tuolumne Rd #67	0.00mi	2/1.0	960 (-4%)	1mo	$74,000	$77	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $49,105
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.06×
• Total profit: $118,452
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $163/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $958	-5% $941	+0% $924	+5% $907	+10% $890
Rent	-10% $796	-5% $860	+0% $924	+5% $987	+10% $1,051
Rate	-1.0pp $954	-0.5pp $939	base $924	+0.5pp $908	+1.0pp $892

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 218 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 217 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 212 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 211 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 210 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 209 DOM
19. 2026-03-30
    price $59,900
20. 2026-02-18
    price $62,900
21. 2025-12-06
    price $66,000
22. 2025-11-02
    listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $163 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 179.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$163
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $10,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,574
• After-tax cash flow: $8,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — East Sonora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #17006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Sonora, CA
• City population: 28,373
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $59,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $62,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $66,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-02 Listed $68,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $163 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.