19 Crescent Cir · Rock Hill, NY 12775

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1960 6,534 sqft lot $229/sqft · 28% below area Est $373k · 28% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single level living in beautiful Lake Louise Marie community. Spacious front deck for entertaining where you have partial lake views and within a few feet from access to lakefront activities, Swimming, Kayaking, Fishing, Hiking etc. Home has some vintage decor for you to bring your own modern creativity. New Windows, New Driveway and Water Heater. Conveniently located to major highway 17, aprx 20 minutes to Middletown, 90 minutes from NYC. Resort's World Casino, Kart Rite Water Park, Bethel Woods Performing Arts Center are all nearby. Please be advised this property is being Sold As Is. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• New flooring
• Renovated kitchen
• New cabinets

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (Lake Louise Mare); Monthly association fee of $69; Association fee covers common area maintenance; Association amenities include a boat dock; Community amenities include clubhouse, playground, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connected (NYSEG); Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Dormer attic
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Count of rooms: 7 (includes all living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Natural woodwork; Washer/dryer hookup; Dormer attic; Unfinished crawl-space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.6% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Emma C Chase School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 228 students, 57% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $211k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $261,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,086
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -27.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Deerfield Ct	0.45mi	2/2.5	1,196 (+1%)	2mo	$255,000	$213	73
74 Lake Shore Dr E	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,168 (-1%)	7mo	$420,000	$360	58
6 The Curve Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,203 (+2%)	10mo	$270,000	$224	58
44 Straight Path	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+7%)	20mo	$255,000	$202	37
17 High View Ter	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,034 (-12%)	12mo	$270,000	$261	34
26 Straight Path	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+12%)	11mo	$470,000	$356	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $153,742
• Equity at exit: $243,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $447,808
• Equity at exit: $524,551

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12775

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,522

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Beaver Lake Rd Rock Hill, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$3,500	$4.67	21d	1	1.30mi
182 Rock Hill Dr Rock Hill, NY	2.0	1.0	1416	$2,000	$1.41	19d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $270,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $284,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $289,000 Active 1349-char remark
18. 2024-06-26
    soldstatus $211,250
19. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $211,250 Closed 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming single level living in beautiful Lake Louise Marie community. Spacious front deck for entertaining where you have partial lake views and within a few feet from access to lakefront activities, Swimming, Kayaking, Fishing, Hiking etc. Home has some vintage decor for you to bring your own modern creativity. New Windows, New Driveway and Water Heater. Conveniently located to major highway 17, aprx 20 minutes to Middletown, 90 minutes from NYC. Resort's World Casino, Kart Rite Water Park, Bethel Woods Performing Arts Center are all nearby. Please be advised this property is being Sold As Is. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

20. 2024-03-26
    status Pending 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming single level living in beautiful Lake Louise Marie community. Spacious front deck for entertaining where you have partial lake views and within a few feet from access to lakefront activities, Swimming, Kayaking, Fishing, Hiking etc. Home has some vintage decor for you to bring your own modern creativity. New Windows, New Driveway and Water Heater. Conveniently located to major highway 17, aprx 20 minutes to Middletown, 90 minutes from NYC. Resort's World Casino, Kart Rite Water Park, Bethel Woods Performing Arts Center are all nearby. Please be advised this property is being Sold As Is. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

21. 2023-12-17
    price $219,000 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming single level living in beautiful Lake Louise Marie community. Spacious front deck for entertaining where you have partial lake views and within a few feet from access to lakefront activities, Swimming, Kayaking, Fishing, Hiking etc. Home has some vintage decor for you to bring your own modern creativity. New Windows, New Driveway and Water Heater. Conveniently located to major highway 17, aprx 20 minutes to Middletown, 90 minutes from NYC. Resort's World Casino, Kart Rite Water Park, Bethel Woods Performing Arts Center are all nearby. Please be advised this property is being Sold As Is. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

22. 2023-09-16
    price $239,000 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming single level living in beautiful Lake Louise Marie community. Spacious front deck for entertaining where you have partial lake views and within a few feet from access to lakefront activities, Swimming, Kayaking, Fishing, Hiking etc. Home has some vintage decor for you to bring your own modern creativity. New Windows, New Driveway and Water Heater. Conveniently located to major highway 17, aprx 20 minutes to Middletown, 90 minutes from NYC. Resort's World Casino, Kart Rite Water Park, Bethel Woods Performing Arts Center are all nearby. Please be advised this property is being Sold As Is. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

23. 2023-09-16
    listed $2,399,999 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Charming single level living in beautiful Lake Louise Marie community. Spacious front deck for entertaining where you have partial lake views and within a few feet from access to lakefront activities, Swimming, Kayaking, Fishing, Hiking etc. Home has some vintage decor for you to bring your own modern creativity. New Windows, New Driveway and Water Heater. Conveniently located to major highway 17, aprx 20 minutes to Middletown, 90 minutes from NYC. Resort's World Casino, Kart Rite Water Park, Bethel Woods Performing Arts Center are all nearby. Please be advised this property is being Sold As Is. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

24. 2018-05-03
    soldstatus $77,000
25. 2018-05-01
    soldstatus $75,000

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Lake Louise Marie 2/3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths ,front porch with Lake view .10 minutes to our new casino and soon indoor water Park .15 minutes to Middletown Electric: Circuit Breaker, InteriorAmenities: Great Room, Internet: Cable, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,

26. 2018-03-18
    listed $79,000

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Lake Louise Marie 2/3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths ,front porch with Lake view .10 minutes to our new casino and soon indoor water Park .15 minutes to Middletown Electric: Circuit Breaker, InteriorAmenities: Great Room, Internet: Cable, LandFeatures: Mature Trees,

27. 2002-11-07
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,546
• − Management: −$2,546
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$758
• After-tax cash flow: $1,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rock Hill, NY
• City population: 2,661
• Population (ZIP): 2,661

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Current HPI: 437.7751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $284,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $285,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $211,250 Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $211,250 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-17 Price Changed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-16 Price Changed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-16 Listed $2,399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-01 Sold (MLS) $75,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-18 Listed $79,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,738 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.