4709 Dohn Rd · Shively, KY 40216

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1953 9,060 sqft lot Est $231k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Living room
• Carport
• Family room

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• CARPORT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed as residential property; Directions: Rockford Ln to Dohn Rd
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Cape Cod style; Two stories
• Construction: Built in 1953; Vinyl siding and wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 64.5 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; One bedroom on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump providing heating and cooling
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Four closets; No basement; First-floor full bathroom; First-floor primary bedroom; Second-floor additional bedroom; Second-floor other room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.3% in Shively — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in KY, #2,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kerrick Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 397 students, 70% FRL); Farnsley Middle (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #175 of 217 statewide, top 81%, 1,038 students, 70% FRL); Western High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #248 of 254 statewide, top 98%, 869 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,855 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,174
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4600 Kiefer Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,342 (-6%)	0mo	$200,000	$149	71
2604 Elmhurst Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,378 (-3%)	4mo	$95,000	$69	70
2207 Rockford Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,555 (+9%)	3mo	$149,000	$96	68
1904 Lampter St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,525 (+7%)	2mo	$247,000	$162	60
4704 Quinn Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (-13%)	2mo	$250,000	$201	60
4706 Quinn Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (-13%)	4mo	$250,000	$201	59
4930 Fielding Way	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (-4%)	3mo	$230,000	$168	58
2414 Helen Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+1%)	6mo	$234,900	$163	55
2509 Guelat Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,304 (-9%)	3mo	$225,500	$173	54
2413 Donna Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-14%)	6mo	$100,000	$82	48
5001 Graston Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,262 (-12%)	2mo	$145,000	$115	46
4313 Dover Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,255 (-12%)	2mo	$194,000	$155	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-25,047
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-28,344
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $125	+0% $78	+5% $32	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $25	+0% $78	+5% $132	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $120	base $78	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 Rockford Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,620	$1.16	25d	1	0.20mi
1840 Kendall Ln Apt 25 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,250	$1.31	25d	1	0.64mi
4330 Bayberry Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,395	$1.23	25d	1	0.64mi
4700 Walnut Grove Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$799	$0.89	25d	1	0.70mi
4414 Tara Gale Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,450	$1.45	5d	1	0.75mi
1602 Clover St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	867	$1,060	$1.22	3d	5	0.78mi
4203 Searcy Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	18d	1	0.84mi
5700 Bruns Dr Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$1,153	$1.03	13d	1	0.91mi
1632 Stafford Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	18d	1	1.03mi
3222 Patricia Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,590	$1.70	3d	1	1.14mi
4319 Sanders Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$925	$0.97	5d	1	1.17mi
3401 Shanks Ln Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,079	$1.23	3d	3	1.35mi
1837 Lower Hunters Trce Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,850	$1.39	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $164,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 92.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $1,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shively

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shively, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $175,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.