393 NE 9th St · Carbon Hill, AL 35549

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Good condition Est $99k · 20% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming and move-in ready, this 3BR, 1.5BA home offers approx 1,300 sq ft of living space on a 0.03 acre lot. Recent updates include a remodeled kitchen and bathroom, along with new flooring throughout. Features include a large porch, one car garage, and conveniently located to Bill & Sons grocery store. Perfect for first time buyers, downsizers, or investors.

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• Remodeled kitchen
• Large porch

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• LARGE PORCH
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport; Attached parking
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property type
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Porch (listed under exterior but accessed from interior/exterior transition)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-720/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carbon Hill Elementaryjunior High School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 492 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,500 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 4th Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,323 (+2%)	14mo	$100,000	$76	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $33,965
• Equity at exit: $78,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $102,124
• Equity at exit: $145,498

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35549

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $110,313

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-19	+0% $-60	+5% $-101	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-98	+0% $-60	+5% $-22	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-30	base $-60	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 4th Ave NE Carbon Hill, AL	3.0	1.0	1075	$965	$0.90	3d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 365-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $119,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$926
• − Management: −$926
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$2,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$667
• After-tax cash flow: $-53/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features recent updates including a remodeled kitchen and bathroom, new flooring, and a fresh exterior. It's in good condition with minor maintenance needed for painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Carbon Hill

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16127

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carbon Hill, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,018

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.48%
• Current HPI: 172.3523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $119,000 Walker County Area MLS