9206 Widener · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 305 Days on market

Built 2022 3,877 sqft lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Discover this 2022 Clayton Built 3 bedroom, 2 bath single-family mobile home in the heart of Panama City Beach! Perfectly positioned next to Zoo World and within walking distance to top attractions like WonderWorks, Ripley's Believe It or Not, Race City, dining, and entertainment—all while being just 5 minutes from the white-sand beach accesses. This home offers a split floor plan designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking for a year-round residence, second home, or investment property. With its 38.5X100 lot size, you'll enjoy low-maintenance, hassle-free living, leaving you more time to soak up the beach lifestyle. ⚡ Features: 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms 2022 Clayton Built Home Split Floor Plan Low-Maintenance Lot Prime Central Location Short-term rentals are not allowed, making this an ideal choice for those who value peaceful coastal living. Priced competitively at $199,900, this is your chance to own a piece of Panama City Beach at an incredible value. ;; All measurements are deemed accurate, but buyers should verify if important. Call your agent to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 3,877 sq ft lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 304 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $195k implies a 680% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,164
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: 3.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8418 Lorento St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	17mo	$148,000	$122	51
1688 Acre Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+9%)	16mo	$245,000	$185	48
2414 Allison Ave	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	23mo	$155,000	$135	45
1632 Acre Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	19mo	$199,000	$188	38
1658 Acre Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-10%)	24mo	$163,000	$149	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,464
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $18,618
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $788/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	0.37mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	0.37mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	0.39mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	13d	2	0.40mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	13d	18	0.46mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	0.54mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	20d	1	0.56mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	13d	12	0.58mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	20d	1	0.77mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	13d	12	0.80mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	13d	1	1.00mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	20d	1	1.02mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	20d	1	1.02mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	13d	41	1.03mi
104 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523320P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1496	$5,020	$3.36	13d	1	1.10mi
998 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523366P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$4,124	$3.87	13d	1	1.12mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	20d	1	1.12mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	13d	1	1.12mi
10400 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,372	$2.06	13d	20	1.26mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	20d	1	1.30mi
10625 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354975P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$3,166	$2.78	13d	1	1.36mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	13d	6	1.42mi
133 W Leslie Ln Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$2,200	$2.32	20d	1	1.43mi
10811 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354928P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,463	$2.90	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,900 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,900 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,900 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,900 Active 290 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,900 Active 289 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 288 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 287 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 286 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,900 Active 285 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    price $194,900 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Discover this 2022 Clayton Built 3 bedroom, 2 bath single-family mobile home in the heart of Panama City Beach! Perfectly positioned next to Zoo World and within walking distance to top attractions like WonderWorks, Ripley's Believe It or Not, Race City, dining, and entertainment—all while being just 5 minutes from the white-sand beach accesses. This home offers a split floor plan designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking for a year-round residence, second home, or investment property. With its 38.5X100 lot size, you'll enjoy low-maintenance, hassle-free living, leaving you more time to soak up the beach lifestyle. ⚡ Features: 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms 2022 Clayton Built Home Split Floor Plan Low-Maintenance Lot Prime Central Location Short-term rentals are not allowed, making this an ideal choice for those who value peaceful coastal living. Priced competitively at $199,900, this is your chance to own a piece of Panama City Beach at an incredible value. ;; All measurements are deemed accurate, but buyers should verify if important. Call your agent to schedule a showing today!

19. 2025-08-18
    listed $199,900 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Discover this 2022 Clayton Built 3 bedroom, 2 bath single-family mobile home in the heart of Panama City Beach! Perfectly positioned next to Zoo World and within walking distance to top attractions like WonderWorks, Ripley's Believe It or Not, Race City, dining, and entertainment—all while being just 5 minutes from the white-sand beach accesses. This home offers a split floor plan designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking for a year-round residence, second home, or investment property. With its 38.5X100 lot size, you'll enjoy low-maintenance, hassle-free living, leaving you more time to soak up the beach lifestyle. ⚡ Features: 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms 2022 Clayton Built Home Split Floor Plan Low-Maintenance Lot Prime Central Location Short-term rentals are not allowed, making this an ideal choice for those who value peaceful coastal living. Priced competitively at $199,900, this is your chance to own a piece of Panama City Beach at an incredible value. ;; All measurements are deemed accurate, but buyers should verify if important. Call your agent to schedule a showing today!

20. 2004-01-26
    soldstatus $25,000
21. 2003-05-15
    listed $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 105.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$788
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $3,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$888
• After-tax cash flow: $5,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+621.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $194,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $199,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-15 Listed $27,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $788 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.