234 Madera Dr · Lodi, CA 95240

$169,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition Est $163k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your new home awaits you in the desirable Casa De Lodi, a peaceful 55+ senior park community with a welcoming atmosphere. This well-maintained mobile offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, featuring both showers and a relaxing walk-in tub for added comfort and accessibility. Enjoy the generous layout with a living room, separate family room, and a charming dining area complete with a built-in hutch for extra storage and character. The home also features a tankless water heater, nuvo home water system, inside laundry room, insulated roof, plus a 8 x 10 Tuff Shed for everyday convenience. Enjoy the community pool, unwind in the library or just relax with the beautiful clubhouse surr

Key facts

• Walk-in tub
• 8 x 10 tuff shed
• Pool

Tags

• WALK-IN TUB
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• INSULATED ROOF
• 8 X 10 TUFF SHED
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a mobile home park (Casa De Lodi Mobile Home Park); Directions available to property address 234 Madera Dr, Lodi, CA 95240
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount available separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available; No enclosed garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Water from water district
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double-wide; Built in 1977
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting; Manufactured by Mountain Valley HM Inc (Mountain HM)
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cooktop; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stalls
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dual-pane full windows; Carpeted porch steps and covered patio; Great room living area; Kitchen with pantry cabinet; Formal dining area and kitchen/family combo; Family room (additional space); Pets allowed with limits on number and size
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,449 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.33%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Camino Real	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$145,000	$101	92
162 El Centro Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$105,175	$73	92
130 Camino Real Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$168,000	$117	90
140 Granada Dr #140	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$155,000	$108	90
55 Camino Real	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$170,000	$118	87
202 Plaza Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	8mo	$165,000	$113	84
21 Rio Vista Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$315,000	$219	82
60 Camino Real Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$90,000	$67	77
63 Camino Real	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$160,000	$119	76
232 Madera Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$115,000	$80	76
90 Buena Vista Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	10mo	$190,000	$152	63
69 Camino Real Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$140,000	$112	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,179
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $39,162
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $169,999

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $646	-5% $587	+0% $529	+5% $470	+10% $411
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $444	+0% $529	+5% $614	+10% $699
Rate	-1.0pp $614	-0.5pp $572	base $529	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Sonora Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	1.0	1032	$2,149	$2.08	3d	1	0.26mi
15 Forrest Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	44d	1	0.76mi
308 Louie Ave Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	44d	1	1.03mi
341 1st St Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,600	$1.92	15d	1	1.10mi
414 W Oak St Unit 414 Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,750	$1.94	24d	1	1.31mi
514 S School St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	955	$2,000	$2.09	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,999 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,999 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,999 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,999 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,999 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$928
• After-tax cash flow: $5,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in a desirable senior community offers a good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B