86460 Shortline Cir · Yulee, FL 32097

$255,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · Townhouse · 36 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition Est $268k · at est. $113/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Soccer fields
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• WALKING TRAILS
• SOCCER FIELDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot on paved road; Zoned PUD; Insulation for energy efficiency; Frontage: Preservation
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $189; Additional annual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; One-car garage with garage door opener; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale
• Construction: Fiber cement construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered and open patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 partial bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Blinds; Ceiling fans; Window treatments

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-732/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,461 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,732
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86654 Shortline Cir	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,332 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$203	94
86400 Mainline Rd	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,332 (0%)	14mo	$280,000	$210	84
86928 Mainline Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,332 (0%)	15mo	$251,000	$188	81
86942 Mainline Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,332 (0%)	15mo	$260,000	$195	80
86472 Shortline Cir	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	3mo	$225,000	$193	72
86752 Shortline Cir	0.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	4mo	$210,000	$180	69
86568 Shortline Cir	0.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	8mo	$241,000	$206	65
86768 Shortline Cir	0.04mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	10mo	$235,000	$201	64
86440 Mainline Rd	0.09mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	7mo	$239,000	$205	64
86752 Mainline Rd	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	12mo	$225,000	$193	61
86690 Mainline Rd	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,167 (-12%)	14mo	$233,000	$200	60
86666 Shortline Cir	0.08mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	14mo	$246,500	$211	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $134,769
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $399,467
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,480/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,232

Max offer price $244,227

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $11	+0% $-61	+5% $-133	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-146	+0% $-61	+5% $24	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $4	base $-61	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
86624 Mainline Rd Yulee, FL	2.0	2.5	1168	$1,695	$1.45	24d	1	0.03mi
86229 Mainline Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,195	$1.80	24d	1	0.22mi
86215 Buggy Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,295	$1.37	21d	1	0.34mi
86147 Callaway Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	1.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	3d	1	0.75mi
78295 Saddle Rock Rd Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,191	$1.19	24d	1	0.89mi
77822 Lumber Creek Blvd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,200	$1.43	24d	1	1.10mi
75530 Harvester St Yulee, FL	2.0	2.5	1168	$1,895	$1.62	5d	1	1.22mi
86114 Harry Green Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,600	$1.38	18d	1	1.45mi
86114 Harry Green Rd Yulee, FL	3.0	1.0	986	$1,650	$1.67	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $270,000 Active
16. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $290,990 Sold 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

17. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus $290,990 Closed 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

18. 2022-04-14
    status Pending 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

19. 2022-04-14
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

20. 2022-03-29
    status Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

21. 2022-03-22
    historical 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

22. 2022-03-15
    price $290,990 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

23. 2022-03-15
    status Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

24. 2022-02-14
    status Pending 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. ** Photos are of the furnished model.

25. 2022-02-08
    listed $265,990 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

26. 2022-02-08
    listed $290,990 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Nassau Crossing is a new townhome community located just off FL-200 minutes from I-95. Our new townhome plans offer thoughtful open concept designs which include smart energy-efficient features! Homeowners in Nassau Crossing will enjoy excellent shopping, top-rated schools, plus Historic Amelia Island and world-renowned beaches are just a short drive away. * * Photos are of the furnished model.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,480
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in Nassau Crossing offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $270,000 AINCAR
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $290,990 AINCAR
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $290,990 realMLS
• 2022-04-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-04-14 Delisted — AINCAR
• 2022-03-29 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-03-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-03-15 Price Changed $290,990 realMLS
• 2022-03-15 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-02-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-02-08 Listed $290,990 AINCAR
• 2022-02-08 Listed $265,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+72.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,480 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.