7213 San Luis St #171 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$419,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 2017 29 ac lot $254/sqft · 9% above area Est $386k · 9% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Lakeshore Gardens, a highly coveted gated 55+ coastal community located west of I-5 in beautiful Carlsbad. This well-maintained neighborhood is fully enclosed with a 6-foot perimeter wall and secured entry gates, offering both privacy and peace of mind. Set on approximately 54 acres of lush landscaping, the community features mature trees, greenbelts, and numerous freshwater lakes surrounding more than 380 residences. Meandering walking paths and refreshing ocean breezes create a tranquil resort-style atmosphere throughout the community. Immaculate move in opportunity via a lovely, raised deck Timber Tech Azek decking (2 yrs new) complete with cover and roller shades. Light, bright t/o, tray ceiling living room flowing effortlessly to a large dining area and elegant, spacious kitchen with casual dining nook, all under a vaulted ceiling. Ceiling fan lights in every room. The split floor plan creates privacy between the primary en-suite in the rear and two secondary bedrooms plus a full bathroom in the front. The Front Bedroom offers an excellent opportunity for an in-home office. The primary bedroom includes an enormous walk-in closet with built-ins and a large bathroom with a huge, refreshing, glass enclosed, spa-style walk-in shower. Tasteful upgrades and features include soft corners, contemporary barn doors, tasteful chandelier, fresh new carpets and earthy, beachy, bleached flooring. Two patio areas--one with warm, neutral pavers which is a spacious outdoor patio area to gather with neighbors and friends. The other to the rear for your gardenng. A well built fixed storage shed, Sola Tubes, and more. New motor installed in heater recently. Residents enjoy an abundance of amenities including a heated pool and spa, sauna, on-site fitness center, billiard room, ping pong, shuffleboard, and a welcoming clubhouse featuring a stage, kitchen, fireside lounge, card room, and an extensive library. The spacious outdoor patio area offers a fountain, fire pit, outdoor fireplace, and barbecue areas, perfect for relaxing or gathering with neighbors. An active social calendar offers something for everyone, with activities such as card games, mixer nights, bingo, craft groups, golf groups, monthly breakfasts, ladies and men’s luncheons, and holiday meals, allowing residents to enjoy a vibrant and engaging lifestyle or simply relax at their own pace. Conveniently located directly across from Poinsettia Village Shopping Center. Residents have easy access to grocery shopping at Ralph’s, a gas station, a UPS store, pet store, Supercuts, restaurants, cafés, banks, shops, and everyday conveniences. The community is also just minutes from the beaches and coastal attractions of Carlsbad Village, along with golf courses, entertainment, medical facilities, and scenic shoreline walking paths. Up to two pets are permitted, though they must be exercised outside of the park. Experience the ease and charm of coastal living in this vibrant and welcoming community.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Freshwater lakes
• Raised deck

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SECURED ENTRY GATES
• MATURE TREES
• FRESHWATER LAKES
• WALKING PATHS
• RAISED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $382k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Rim Elementary (673 students, 10% FRL); Aviara Oaks Middle (1,021 students, 16% FRL); Carlsbad High (2,290 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $310k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.39%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,755
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: 8.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7354 Escallonia Ct	0.16mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,691 (+2%)	1mo	$1,543,500	$913	81
7139 Linden	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,737 (+5%)	4mo	$1,475,000	$849	71
7013 Lavender Way	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,678 (+1%)	4mo	$1,260,000	$751	68
7327 Seafarer Pl	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,868 (+13%)	13mo	$1,570,000	$840	61
7102 Primrose Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+7%)	1mo	$1,625,000	$920	59
911 Orchid Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+7%)	8mo	$1,575,000	$892	57
7426 Lantana	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-11%)	4mo	$1,500,000	$1,017	56
7040 Whitewater St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,850 (+12%)	9mo	$1,862,500	$1,007	54
7024 Whitewater St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,850 (+12%)	14mo	$2,125,000	$1,149	49
6866 Seaspray Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,769 (+7%)	8mo	$1,400,000	$791	46
7204 Linden	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-13%)	22mo	$1,425,000	$986	39
7010 Lantana	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+12%)	22mo	$1,300,000	$703	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $166,819
• Equity at exit: $159,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $438,897
• Equity at exit: $226,030

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,451 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,298/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,355
• Net cashflow: $2,194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,673

Max offer price $419,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,484	-5% $2,339	+0% $2,194	+5% $2,049	+10% $1,904
Rent	-10% $1,685	-5% $1,939	+0% $2,194	+5% $2,449	+10% $2,704
Rate	-1.0pp $2,406	-0.5pp $2,301	base $2,194	+0.5pp $2,085	+1.0pp $1,975

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7290 Ponto Dr Carlsbad, CA	4.0	3.5	1757	$8,395	$4.78	0d	1	0.17mi
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	46d	1	0.32mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	46d	1	0.64mi
6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,000	$3.21	1d	1	0.74mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	19d	1	0.81mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	20d	1	0.85mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	7d	1	0.96mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	46d	1	0.97mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$5,359	$5.76	0d	5	1.04mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	46d	1	1.18mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	0d	1	1.20mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	0d	1	1.21mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	46d	1	1.35mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,145	$3.72	0d	2	1.39mi
141 Stonesteps Way Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1593	$6,500	$4.08	0d	1	1.41mi
1703 Kennington Rd Encinitas, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$6,195	$3.83	5d	1	1.42mi
1686 Neptune Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1268	$10,500	$8.28	0d	1	1.44mi
1680 Neptune Ave Encinitas, CA	4.0	3.5	1706	$25,000	$14.65	0d	1	1.45mi
156 Grandview St Unit 4 Encinitas, CA	2.0	1.5	1400	$4,800	$3.43	16d	1	1.45mi
256 Hillcrest Dr Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,750	$5.23	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $419,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $419,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $419,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    price $419,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $469,900 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-02-09
    listed $469,900 Active 3019-char remark

    Show marketing remark (3019 chars)

    Welcome to Lakeshore Gardens, a highly coveted gated 55+ coastal community located west of I-5 in beautiful Carlsbad. This well-maintained neighborhood is fully enclosed with a 6-foot perimeter wall and secured entry gates, offering both privacy and peace of mind. Set on approximately 54 acres of lush landscaping, the community features mature trees, greenbelts, and numerous freshwater lakes surrounding more than 380 residences. Meandering walking paths and refreshing ocean breezes create a tranquil resort-style atmosphere throughout the community. Immaculate move in opportunity via a lovely, raised deck Timber Tech Azek decking (2 yrs new) complete with cover and roller shades. Light, bright t/o, tray ceiling living room flowing effortlessly to a large dining area and elegant, spacious kitchen with casual dining nook, all under a vaulted ceiling. Ceiling fan lights in every room. The split floor plan creates privacy between the primary en-suite in the rear and two secondary bedrooms plus a full bathroom in the front. The Front Bedroom offers an excellent opportunity for an in-home office. The primary bedroom includes an enormous walk-in closet with built-ins and a large bathroom with a huge, refreshing, glass enclosed, spa-style walk-in shower. Tasteful upgrades and features include soft corners, contemporary barn doors, tasteful chandelier, fresh new carpets and earthy, beachy, bleached flooring. Two patio areas--one with warm, neutral pavers which is a spacious outdoor patio area to gather with neighbors and friends. The other to the rear for your gardenng. A well built fixed storage shed, Sola Tubes, and more. New motor installed in heater recently. Residents enjoy an abundance of amenities including a heated pool and spa, sauna, on-site fitness center, billiard room, ping pong, shuffleboard, and a welcoming clubhouse featuring a stage, kitchen, fireside lounge, card room, and an extensive library. The spacious outdoor patio area offers a fountain, fire pit, outdoor fireplace, and barbecue areas, perfect for relaxing or gathering with neighbors. An active social calendar offers something for everyone, with activities such as card games, mixer nights, bingo, craft groups, golf groups, monthly breakfasts, ladies and men’s luncheons, and holiday meals, allowing residents to enjoy a vibrant and engaging lifestyle or simply relax at their own pace. Conveniently located directly across from Poinsettia Village Shopping Center. Residents have easy access to grocery shopping at Ralph’s, a gas station, a UPS store, pet store, Supercuts, restaurants, cafés, banks, shops, and everyday conveniences. The community is also just minutes from the beaches and coastal attractions of Carlsbad Village, along with golf courses, entertainment, medical facilities, and scenic shoreline walking paths. Up to two pets are permitted, though they must be exercised outside of the park. Experience the ease and charm of coastal living in this vibrant and welcoming community.

19. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $310,000 Closed Sale 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    RESORT STYLE LIVING!!! As You walk into this Beautiful Home You will notice Attention to Detail. This Home Boasts 9" Vaulted Ceiling an Open Floor Plan, Custom Kitchen with all New Stainless Steel Appliances, 5 Burner Gas Stove, Granit Counters. Ginormous Master Bedroom with Walk in Closet and a Oversized Walk in Shower. Backyard is Finished with Pavers and Artificial Turf, there is a veggie garden with citrus tree. Brand New Shed in the Front Carport to use for storage or as a "she" Shed. This Home will have you finding Sanctuary at the Beach.

20. 2018-11-14
    historical
21. 2017-03-14
    historical
22. 2017-02-25
    price $115,000
23. 2017-01-20
    listed $132,000 Active
24. 2017-01-20
    listed $115,000
25. 2009-08-22
    price $98,000 Expired
26. 2008-03-31
    historical
27. 2008-03-31
    historical
28. 2008-03-19
    soldstatus $90,000
29. 2008-01-07
    listed $98,000
30. 2007-07-14
    price $124,500
31. 2007-05-29
    listed $98,000
32. 2007-05-29
    listed $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$6,298
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,193
• − Management: −$6,193
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable income: $20,888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,013
• After-tax cash flow: $21,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+379.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $469,900 CRMLS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (MLS) $310,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-03-14 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2017-02-25 Price Changed $115,000 SDMLS
• 2017-01-20 Listed $132,000 SDMLS
• 2017-01-20 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2009-08-22 Price Changed $98,000 SDMLS
• 2008-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-03-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-03-19 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2008-01-07 Listed $98,000 CRMLS
• 2007-07-14 Price Changed $124,500 SDMLS
• 2007-05-29 Listed $98,000 CRMLS
• 2007-05-29 Listed $98,000 SDMLS