3907 Algernon Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$127,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1982 6,930 sqft lot Est $176k · 28% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cute 2 bedroom home lives bigger than it looks! Updated kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, 1 year old appliances, no carpet!! Tile floors throughout most of the home make for easy cleaning!Easy access to 1960 and the Hardy Toll road with plenty of shopping nearby! Tall ceilings throughout and a 2 car garage for extra storage! You'll also find an open space near the garage entrance that could easily be used for office space. Call today for your private showing!

Key facts

• Easy commuting
• Spacious backyard
• Functional layout

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• HIGH CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• EASY COMMUTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Asset Management oversees the association; Annual association fee of $120 covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1982
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Porch; Private yard; Subdivision lot setting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 14); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fan(s); One fireplace; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Jenkins El (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 623 students, 90% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $127k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,250
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 Donalbain Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,322 (+12%)	0mo	$168,000	$127	59
3519 Fiorella Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (+14%)	20mo	$199,900	$150	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-18,018
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-24,731
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$520 /mo · $6,240/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $521	+0% $116	+5% $80	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $47	+0% $116	+5% $184	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $148	base $116	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $127,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 560-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $127,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,240 · $520/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,240 · $520/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$6,240
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable loss: −$392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$94
• After-tax cash flow: $1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+103.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $127,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $178,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $184,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $174,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-06 Listed $202,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,240 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.