212 Water Ridge Dr · West Livingston, TX 77351

$163,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1975 0.25 ac lot $85/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This older home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to invest in a property with potential. In need of repairs and updates, it's perfect for those ready to roll up their sleeves and make it their own. The home offers a limited view of the nearby lake, adding a touch of natural beauty, while still maintaining an affordable entry point. Residents can also enjoy convenient access to local lake amenities, including boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation in the neighborhood. With some vision and effort, this property could become a comfortable retreat or a smart investment. Hot water heater was purchased 03/10/2026 and new roof was installed in 2018.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($848/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,068 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,838
• List price: $163,000
• Delta: -54.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Lazy Water Dr	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,654 (-14%)	4mo	$189,000	$114	65
1555 Fm 3277	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (0%)	17mo	$374,900	$195	65
150 Miller Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (+5%)	22mo	$249,900	$124	58
192 Shadow Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,029 (+6%)	16mo	$379,600	$187	55
411 Resort Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (+8%)	4mo	$519,000	$250	53
255 Pine Brook Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-14%)	13mo	$394,250	$239	51
155 Laney Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,010 (+5%)	23mo	$255,000	$127	45
276 Resort Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,757 (-8%)	24mo	$375,000	$213	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,887
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,160
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,496/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $163,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $163,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $163,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $163,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $170,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-05-08
    price $170,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    This older home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to invest in a property with potential. In need of repairs and updates, it's perfect for those ready to roll up their sleeves and make it their own. The home offers a limited view of the nearby lake, adding a touch of natural beauty, while still maintaining an affordable entry point. Residents can also enjoy convenient access to local lake amenities, including boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation in the neighborhood. With some vision and effort, this property could become a comfortable retreat or a smart investment. Hot water heater was purchased 03/10/2026 and new roof was installed in 2018.

14. 2026-04-04
    listed $180,000 Active 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    This older home presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to invest in a property with potential. In need of repairs and updates, it's perfect for those ready to roll up their sleeves and make it their own. The home offers a limited view of the nearby lake, adding a touch of natural beauty, while still maintaining an affordable entry point. Residents can also enjoy convenient access to local lake amenities, including boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation in the neighborhood. With some vision and effort, this property could become a comfortable retreat or a smart investment. Hot water heater was purchased 03/10/2026 and new roof was installed in 2018.

15. 1998-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,496 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$487/yr (+$41/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$2,496
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable loss: −$1,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $1,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 1998-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,496 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.