242 Ramsgate Way · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 3,999 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand New Home in active resident-owned senior community w/ golf, tennis, fishing, shuffleboard. Beautiful clubhouse w/ full pub, library, billiard room, heated pool & spa, exercise room. Upgraded appliances. Must see to appreciate!House has many upgrades. Plastered walls, crown molding, marble sills.

Key facts

• Deeded lot
• Fitness center
• Hot tub spa

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• GOLF CART GARAGE
• DEEDED LOT
• HEATED POOL
• HOT TUB SPA
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (manufactured home); Other structures on lot: Shed(s); Lot approx. 0.09 acres (50 x 80) on a private maintained asphalt road
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported as $387; Total annual fees reported as $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $387); Association requires approval; Association includes cable TV, management, pool, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated access, golf course, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities; Street lights; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs OK)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Detached/covered carport (1 car); Garage and carport available
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Underground utilities; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; South-facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding on frame construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation with crawl space; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rain gutters; Exterior storage / shed; Landscaped lot; Level lot; Near golf course; Near public transit; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located inside; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $190k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,690
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,589
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $786/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,934

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $191	+0% $137	+5% $84	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $54	+0% $137	+5% $221	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $186	base $137	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.62mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.10mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.23mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $786 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 100.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$786
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$312
• After-tax cash flow: $1,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+59.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-05 Sold (MLS) $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-08 Listed $118,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $786 · +18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.