6000 La Paloma Ln · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1999 3.64 ac lot Est $239k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Almost 4 acres in 4 lots sitting high on the hill with complete privacy. Kick back & watch the stars or sip morning java watching the sunrise. The lake & hill country view is enormous. Manufactured home used very sparingly by absentee owner. Shared well. Septic on property. No city taxes. Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• Lake view
• Spacious lots
• 3.64 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• SPACIOUS LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-322/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1092 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,476 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19604 Pecos Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,048 (+4%)	18mo	$250,000	$122	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-45,410
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,193
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1092
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,097/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $264,255

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20103 Park Strip St Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,795	$1.18	4d	1	0.37mi
20105 Park Strip St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	43d	1	0.39mi
20107 Park Strip St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,900	$1.24	17d	1	0.41mi
6107 La Mesa St Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1934	$1,995	$1.03	16d	1	0.74mi
20507 Bonanza Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,895	$1.31	43d	1	0.82mi
5211 Thunderbird St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,550	$1.03	17d	1	0.90mi
5205 Thunderbird Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,100	$1.38	23d	1	0.93mi
19903 Lincoln Cv Lago Vista, TX	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,250	$1.24	17d	1	1.10mi
5102 Moss Pt Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,250	$1.25	23d	1	1.16mi
4302 Lindberg Ln Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	2038	$2,295	$1.13	4d	1	1.26mi
20703 Ridgeview Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,200	$1.21	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-05-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-10
   price $269,000
3. 2025-03-12
   listed $295,000 Active
4. 2025-02-14
   soldstatus
5. 2025-01-13
   soldstatus
6. 2013-04-02
   soldstatus Sold 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Almost 4 acres in 4 lots sitting high on the hill with complete privacy. Kick back & watch the stars or sip morning java watching the sunrise. The lake & hill country view is enormous. Manufactured home used very sparingly by absentee owner. Shared well. Septic on property. No city taxes. Restrictions: Yes

7. 2013-01-03
   status Pending 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Almost 4 acres in 4 lots sitting high on the hill with complete privacy. Kick back & watch the stars or sip morning java watching the sunrise. The lake & hill country view is enormous. Manufactured home used very sparingly by absentee owner. Shared well. Septic on property. No city taxes. Restrictions: Yes

8. 2012-06-12
   listed $139,900 Active 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Almost 4 acres in 4 lots sitting high on the hill with complete privacy. Kick back & watch the stars or sip morning java watching the sunrise. The lake & hill country view is enormous. Manufactured home used very sparingly by absentee owner. Shared well. Septic on property. No city taxes. Restrictions: Yes

9. 2009-07-31
   historical
10. 2008-10-14
    listed
11. 2002-10-07
    soldstatus
12. 2002-09-04
    historical
13. 2002-06-20
    listed $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,097 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,825/yr (+$235/mo · 134.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,097
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,205
• After-tax cash flow: $882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+327.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-28 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $269,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $295,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-02 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2013-01-03 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2012-06-12 Listed $139,900 Unlock MLS
• 2009-07-31 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2008-10-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2002-10-07 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2002-09-04 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2002-06-20 Listed $63,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,097 · -20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.