16225 Lake Forest Dr · Strongsville, OH 44136

$425,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1980 10,123 sqft lot Est $427k · at est. $35/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Meticulously maintained by the same owners for over four decades, this classic colonial in Strongsville offers timeless appeal, generous living spaces, and an exceptional setting. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, the home is designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious family room is a true gathering place, complete with a cozy woodburning fireplace and wet bar, while the formal living and dining rooms provide the perfect backdrop for hosting. The large kitchen is well-appointed with granite countertops and an inviting dining area. A convenient first-floor laundry room and half bath add everyday functionality. One of the home’s standout features is the incredibl

Key facts

• Three season sunroom
• Trex deck
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• THREE SEASON SUNROOM
• TREX DECK
• FULL UNFINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• ACCESS TO SWIMMING POOL
• ACCESS TO FISHING POND
• ACCESS TO WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $425k).
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.2% in Strongsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#27 in OH, #243 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Strongsville City (suburban): math 73% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #62 of 656 in OH (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,055/mo this rent would consume 103% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $425k implies a 279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $425,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.73%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $427,380
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15852 Inglewood Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,534 (+1%)	0mo	$375,500	$148	86
10141 Huntington Park Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-2%)	9mo	$451,000	$184	75
9608 Downers Grove Ct	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,573 (+2%)	10mo	$454,900	$177	66
9322 Rainier Ct	0.15mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,292 (-9%)	3mo	$485,000	$212	65
9898 Lakeview Cir	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,394 (-5%)	0mo	$395,000	$165	58
9707 Huntington Park Dr	0.10mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,840 (+13%)	17mo	$390,000	$137	52
10184 Versailles Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,673 (+6%)	11mo	$455,000	$170	51
15412 Dewitt Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,274 (-10%)	18mo	$390,000	$172	50
9088 Eldorado Trl	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,817 (+12%)	20mo	$446,000	$158	47
16097 N Laguardia	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,248 (-11%)	18mo	$385,000	$171	47
15390 Highland Park	0.40mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,815 (+12%)	16mo	$352,000	$125	39
16519 Albion Rd	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,792 (+11%)	6mo	$425,000	$152	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $150,570
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $413,984
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44136

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$479 /mo · $5,748/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,692
• Net cashflow: $3,444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,696

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8040 Strongsville Blvd Unit 1496063P Strongsville, OH	3.0	2.0	1980	$8,055	$4.07	21d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $425,000 Active
3. 1983-04-29
   soldstatus $112,000
4. 1983-02-08
   soldstatus $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,748 · $479/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,189 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$5,748
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,733
• − Management: −$7,733
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $36,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,816
• After-tax cash flow: $32,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Strongsville City
• NCES district ID: 3904484
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,206
• Composite: 67.02/100
• National rank: #395
• State rank: #62 of 656 in OH

Livability — Strongsville

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #243

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Strongsville, OH
• County: Cuyahoga · 1,045,444 people
• City population: 46,110
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,068
• Household income: $93,713
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.9

Population outlook (Cuyahoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,244,621 people
• By 2030: 1,230,093 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 1,189,108 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 1,145,706 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 1,076,557 · -13.5%
• By 2100: 978,987 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 11% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cuyahoga

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.5) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.5 2020: D+34.1 2016: D+35.0 2012: D+38.7 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.78%
• Current HPI: 205.4425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+338.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-22 Listed $425,000 MLSNOW
• 1983-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 1983-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,748 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.