1270 W Avenue H4 · Lancaster, CA 93534

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1989 5,662 sqft lot Est $422k · 34% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-story home situated on a cul-de-sac with a functional floor plan offering three bedrooms and two bathrooms. The property includes an indoor laundry room and a rear yard that provides a clean slate for future use or customization. The home has sustained fire damage and presents an opportunity for a buyer to complete repairs and apply their own finishing touches. Reach out today to schedule a tour!

Key facts

• Rear yard
• Cul-de-sac
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• REAR YARD
• SINGLE-LEVEL DESIGN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Traditional style; Single-story
• Construction: Tile roof; Frame, wood and stucco construction; Concrete slab foundation; Built on assessor parcel APN 3119-017-002
• Exterior features: Front zeroscape; Paved public streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Desert View Elementary (691 students, 92% FRL); Piute Middle (731 students, 96% FRL); Antelope Valley High (1,558 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,590/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3232% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,963 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $422,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1270 W Avenue H4	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,324 (0%)	1mo	$266,000	$201	99
45858 Coventry Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+2%)	1mo	$459,900	$341	88
45827 Caledonia Ct	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+2%)	1mo	$430,000	$319	79
741 Desert Calico Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-2%)	0mo	$430,000	$330	74
1041 W Avenue H2	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+7%)	1mo	$389,900	$275	68
714 W Avenue H9	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (-1%)	0mo	$435,000	$332	64
724 W Avenue H10	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (-1%)	1mo	$310,000	$236	61
1420 Indian Sage Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,181 (-11%)	1mo	$355,000	$301	57
45315 Genoa	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (+4%)	1mo	$585,000	$427	54
45309 Newtree Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (-9%)	0mo	$437,400	$363	54
1140 W Avenue H12	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+11%)	1mo	$395,000	$270	50
1408 W Avenue H15	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+9%)	1mo	$410,000	$284	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,806
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-59,914
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93534

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $208	+0% $111	+5% $15	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $9	+0% $111	+5% $214	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $183	base $111	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45713 Coventry Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,695	$1.69	0d	1	0.14mi
1126 Valiant St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1420	$2,900	$2.04	0d	1	0.26mi
1539 W Avenue H8 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1054	$2,350	$2.23	0d	1	0.33mi
1427 Boyden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$2,650	$2.25	0d	1	0.43mi
1002 W Holguin St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,395	$2.16	26d	1	0.44mi
1415 Boyden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.5	1420	$2,500	$1.76	0d	1	0.44mi
1149 West Avenue H-11 Unit H11 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,400	$1.61	17d	1	0.50mi
815 W Avenue H7 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1332	$2,500	$1.88	4d	1	0.51mi
1268 Unit H Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.5	1241	$2,599	$2.09	0d	1	0.60mi
45419 10th St W Unit B Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	1095	$1,998	$1.82	0d	1	0.60mi
705 Desert Calico Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,600	$1.99	0d	1	0.60mi
45524 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.5	988	$2,150	$2.18	0d	1	0.62mi
730 W Avenue H10 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1312	$3,200	$2.44	0d	1	0.69mi
713 West Avenue H-10 Unit H-10 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,640	$2.01	5d	1	0.69mi
713 West Avenue H-10 Unit H-10 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,900	$2.21	3d	1	0.69mi
45303 Lorimer Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1498	$3,000	$2.00	4d	1	0.70mi
1432 W Avenue H15 Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1296	$3,100	$2.39	0d	1	0.71mi
45354 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1388	$2,943	$2.12	0d	1	0.75mi
45329 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1005	$2,300	$2.29	4d	1	0.76mi
730 W Avenue H12 Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	972	$2,375	$2.44	0d	1	0.78mi
700 W Avenue I Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	895	$1,745	$1.95	0d	3	1.05mi
44928 Kingtree Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,350	$1.75	0d	1	1.11mi
1341 W Kildare St Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1392	$3,000	$2.16	0d	1	1.18mi
44836 Lorimer Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,500	$1.73	0d	1	1.22mi
45119 Beech Ave Unit A Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.5	985	$2,200	$2.23	0d	1	1.25mi
661 W Lancaster Blvd Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,959	$1.22	0d	1	1.37mi
2060 Westwood Ct Lancaster, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1033	$3,220	$3.12	0d	11	1.41mi
44740 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-07
   price $279,900
4. 2026-03-08
   price $299,900
5. 2026-03-08
   status Active
6. 2026-01-03
   historical
7. 2026-01-03
   status Active
8. 2025-12-27
   historical
9. 2025-12-24
   price $339,900
10. 2025-12-23
    listed $319,300 Active
11. 2024-05-30
    historical
12. 2024-04-25
    status Active
13. 2024-04-22
    price $399,000
14. 2024-04-18
    listed $425,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$3,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $2,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,430
• Household income: $61,866
• Rent vs Own: 62.7% rent · 37.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3232.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 27% White 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.73%
• Current HPI: 395.3098
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-34.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — AVMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $279,900 AVMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $299,900 AVMLS
• 2026-03-08 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $339,900 AVMLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $319,300 AVMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-04-25 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-18 Listed $425,000 CRMLS