161 Gum Bottom Road 161 · Richmond, KY 40385

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 1997 1.71 ac lot $110/sqft · 45% below area Est $349k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home on 1.71 acres, Handicapped ramp on front porch, farm house style living room with a 14 foot 36-foot addition, 34 foot covered back porch, the building in front of home and hot tub do not convey with property. 16x16 out building, Nice lever lot and the possibility of purchasing some more. Home will not go FHA or VA due to not having a permanent foundation.

Key facts

• 16x16 out building
• 1.71 acre lot
• Built 1997

Tags

• FARM HOUSE STYLE LIVING ROOM
• 34 FOOT COVERED BACK PORCH
• 16X16 OUT BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.71 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Ramped access; Partial fencing; Shed(s); Landscaped lot with few trees; Rural, mountain and farm views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling; Wall unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Insulated windows; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.0% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#163 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Elementary School (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #301 of 676 statewide, top 48%, 618 students, 50% FRL); Farristown Middle School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade C, #23 of 217 statewide, top 11%, 466 students, 48% FRL); Madison Southern High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,210 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $120,290 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,514
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -45.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
197 Gumbottom Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,769 (+3%)	22mo	$235,000	$133	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $13,054
• Equity at exit: $99,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $63,439
• Equity at exit: $165,394

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40385

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $137,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-297	+0% $-363	+5% $-428	+10% $-494
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-410	+0% $-363	+5% $-315	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-267	-0.5pp $-314	base $-363	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    listed $190,000 Active 368-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$7,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,470/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 2103720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,590
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5580
• State rank: #35 of 165 in KY

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #8196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 65,961
• Population (ZIP): 2,378

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,241 people
• By 2030: 104,927 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 116,079 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 127,293 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 155,644 · +56.8%
• By 2100: 176,488 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.6% · R 64.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.29%
• Current HPI: 248.2775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $190,000 ImagineMLS