5145 Cobble Creek Ct Unit G202 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34110

$419,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · Condo · 14 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $712/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Carlton Lakes! This beautiful 2nd floor condo is centrally located and just a short walk to Seed to Table! This North Naples community provides easy access to grocery stores, restaurants, and shopping! Close to Immokalee, Livingston and 75! With a stunning lakefront view, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1 car garage condo is immaculate and offers high ceilings all throughout. Nice clean tile throughout, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and updated bathrooms. There is a balcony in the front and the back offering a birds eye view of the surrounding area. The condo is a stones throw from the community pool and ideally located.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Updated bathrooms
• Lakefront view

Tags

• LAKEFRONT VIEW
• COMMUNITY POOL
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• HIGH CEILINGS

Property features AI

Other

• Other: Part of an 8-unit building within an 800-unit complex; 2 units per floor; Possession at closing; Deeded restrictions

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee $688 quarterly; Condominium fee $1,448 quarterly; Total annual recurring fees $8,544; Total one-time fees $2,150; Professional management; Maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/Wi-Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, security, street lights, street maintenance, and water; Community amenities: basketball, BBQ/picnic area, bike and jog path, bocce court, community pool, community room, spa/hot tub, exercise room, fishing pier, library, play area, sidewalks, tennis court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Community security included in maintenance
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach unit in a low-rise building (1–3 stories); Built in 1998; Rear exposure faces north; Located in the Carlton Lakes community (Edgewater at Carlton Lakes)
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior finish; Zero lot line; Lake view and lake frontage; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (electric); Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Cathedral ceiling; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan; Balcony; Family room; Guest bath; Guest room; Laundry in residence; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $419k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $419k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,988/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $419,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-60,781
• Equity at exit: $62,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-80,014
• Equity at exit: $36,227

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,285/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$712
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,048
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,567

Max offer price $419,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5145 Cobble Creek Ct #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1798	$2,600	$1.45	21d	1	0.01mi
5130 Cobble Creek Ct Unit B202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,800	$1.37	14d	1	0.08mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.17mi
4910 Deerfield Way Unit A-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$5,500	$3.96	14d	1	0.19mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	23d	1	0.19mi
5360 Andover Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$6,500	$3.37	23d	1	0.20mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	23d	1	0.22mi
5125 Cedar Springs Dr #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2177	$5,650	$2.60	23d	1	0.24mi
4950 Deerfield Way #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,000	$1.44	21d	1	0.25mi
4970 Deerfield Way Unit F-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,990	$1.43	14d	1	0.28mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	23d	1	0.30mi
5630 Sherborn Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2005	$7,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.30mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	23d	1	0.30mi
5935 Northridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1671	$2,995	$1.79	23d	1	0.31mi
4910 Cougar Ct N Unit 1-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,050	$1.49	14d	1	0.33mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	23d	1	0.40mi
4945 Cougar Ct S #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,750	$2.00	14d	1	0.41mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.42mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,186	$2.86	14d	68	0.43mi
250 Willowick Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$3,500	$2.38	23d	1	0.43mi
4940 Cougar Ct S Unit 1545947P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,185	$1.60	14d	1	0.43mi
208 Erie Dr Unit 1355591P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1754	$5,550	$3.16	14d	1	0.46mi
4965 Sandra Bay Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.46mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.46mi
194 Wickliffe Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,500	$1.95	23d	1	0.46mi
300 Diamond Cir #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,600	$1.48	23d	1	0.50mi
231 Legacy Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2265	$7,900	$3.49	23d	1	0.51mi
5765 Grande Reserve Way Unit 7-702 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	23d	1	0.52mi
5693 Heron Ln #502 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,800	$4.56	23d	1	0.55mi
15181 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$7,500	$3.49	14d	1	0.57mi
15177 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$8,500	$3.95	14d	1	0.57mi
600 Diamond Cir #607 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1680	$4,800	$2.86	23d	1	0.58mi
5705 Heron Ln #806 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$7,000	$4.55	23d	1	0.60mi
6478 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1711	$10,000	$5.84	23d	1	0.63mi
700 Diamond Cir #706 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,700	$1.51	23d	1	0.63mi
128 Heritage Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2382	$3,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.68mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	23d	1	0.71mi
10805 Queen Anne Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1252	$4,800	$3.83	23d	1	0.72mi
98 Chardon Pl Unit 1073520P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$5,886	$3.58	14d	1	0.72mi
81 Wickliffe Dr Unit 1073563P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$4,681	$3.13	14d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $712 · $8,544/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 654-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $419,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$6,285
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,789
• − Management: −$4,789
• − HOA: −$8,544
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$2,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $4,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2nd floor condo in Carlton Lakes is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is well-maintained. Painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls and siding — Painting the exterior will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value.
• Both Trim the landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances the property's curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the property's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior walls and siding — Painting the exterior will improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Trim the landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances the property's curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the property's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16015.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $419,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,600 FGCMLS
• 2026-04-02 Rental Removed $2,600 FGCMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed for Rent $2,600 FGCMLS