18 Alden Dr #18 · Berlin, MA 01503

$400,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,619 sqft · Townhouse · 52 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $247/sqft · 15% below area Est $471k · 15% under $810/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Make it home in Berlin! This 2-bedroom, end-unit townhouse in Whitney Estates offers a blend of comfort and convenience. Head inside to find a bright, inviting interior with hardwood flooring and a neutral palette that flows throughout. The spacious living area opens to a functional eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday living and casual entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find two generously sized bedrooms, including a master suite with private bath and oversized Palladian window for loads of natural light. Soak up the sun and serene setting from your deck, then cool off inside with central air. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a small condo community with easy access to Routes 62/290/495 as

Key facts

• $810 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property address: 18 Alden Dr #18, Berlin, MA 01503; Directions: Whitney to Pleasant to Alden
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $810; HOA covers insurance, structure maintenance, and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); One covered parking space; Two off-street/open parking spaces; Total of 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer (inspection required for sale); Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Condominium (Townhouse style); Whitney Estates community; Two stories; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Built year from public records
• Exterior features: Deck; End unit with common wall

Interior

• Kitchen: Dining area; Recessed lighting; Stainless steel appliances; Overhead lighting; Range, Dishwasher, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second floor with full bathroom, closet, bay/bow/box window, overhead lighting, and wall-to-wall carpet; Second bedroom on second floor with closet, overhead lighting, and wall-to-wall carpet
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet in bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom on the main level; Second-floor full bath with tub and shower and stone/ceramic tile flooring; Master bathroom present
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Deck access from living room; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in basement/in building

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-428 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Berlin-Boylston (rural): math 50% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #60 of 302 in MA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tahanto Regional High (math 52% / reading 71%, grade B-, #126 of 343 statewide, top 37%, 515 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,293 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (1,205 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $338,105 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,346
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -15.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Alden Dr #16	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,619 (0%)	23mo	$489,900	$303	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-91,502
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-112,492
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01503

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$810
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$836
• Net cashflow: $-428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,524

Max offer price $338,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-290	+0% $-428	+5% $-566	+10% $-704
Rent	-10% $-742	-5% $-585	+0% $-428	+5% $-270	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-226	-0.5pp $-326	base $-428	+0.5pp $-531	+1.0pp $-637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Tyler Rd Berlin, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1196	$3,983	$3.33	0d	10	0.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $810 · $9,720/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $400,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $400,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $400,000 Price Changed 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $400,000 Price Changed 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $409,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $409,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $409,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $409,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on market $409,000 Price Changed 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $419,000 New 927-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,824
• − Management: −$3,824
• − HOA: −$9,720
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$11,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,787
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This end-unit townhouse in Whitney Estates is in good condition with modern updates and a neutral color scheme. It offers a bright, inviting interior with hardwood flooring and a spacious layout. The property is in a small condo community with easy access to major highways.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin-Boylston
• NCES district ID: 2502580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $92,310
• Composite: 55.04/100
• National rank: #1291
• State rank: #60 of 302 in MA

Livability — Berlin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,311

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 850,858 people
• By 2030: 860,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 869,902 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 869,110 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 870,120 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 829,703 · -2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: D (+10.0) · D 53.9% · R 43.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.8pp · 2024: 10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.0 2020: D+17.8 2016: D+10.5 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.16%
• Current HPI: 213.5484
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $400,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $409,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-04-30 Listed $419,000 MLS PIN