13515 Palmera Vista Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$354,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 2022 6,600 sqft lot $8/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to your dream home in the desirable community of RESERVE AT PRADERA! This stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence built in 2022 offers 1,832 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a 0.15-acre lot (55x120), located in beautiful Hillsborough County. Step inside to discover an open floor plan perfect for both entertaining and everyday living. The chef’s kitchen is a standout, featuring granite countertops, a spacious center island, solid wood cabinets, modern stainless steel appliances, charming crown molding-style cabinetry details, and elegant crystal light fixtures. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the dining and living areas, pr

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Soaking tub
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• CROWN MOLDING-STYLE CABINETRY
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Elementary School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 807 students, 60% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,821 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-59,348
• Equity at exit: $78,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-77,200
• Equity at exit: $76,563

Cash invested: $99,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax from tax record: −$770 /mo · $9,235/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,527

Max offer price $297,821

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-223	+0% $-323	+5% $-424	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-446	+0% $-323	+5% $-200	+10% $-77
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-233	base $-323	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,725
• Closing costs: $10,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,800	$2.07	1d	1	0.01mi
13515 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,800	$2.05	19d	1	0.01mi
13456 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,500	$1.43	19d	1	0.09mi
11810 Tetrafin Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,750	$1.26	26d	1	0.24mi
11838 Blackeyed Susan Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$2,800	$1.54	22d	1	0.32mi
13204 Waterleaf Garden Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$3,600	$1.76	7d	1	0.35mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	22d	1	0.42mi
13316 Palmera Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2497	$3,200	$1.28	26d	1	0.42mi
11716 Navajo Sandstone St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,900	$1.18	7d	1	0.55mi
12036 Cardinal Flower Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2542	$2,590	$1.02	13d	1	0.67mi
11328 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	3.5	2532	$2,600	$1.03	12d	1	0.74mi
13185 Green Violet Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	1908	$2,459	$1.29	7d	1	0.75mi
13263 Evening Sunset Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1959	$2,200	$1.12	7d	1	0.76mi
11927 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	2320	$3,100	$1.34	7d	1	0.76mi
11618 Ashton Field Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2114	$2,400	$1.14	1d	1	0.76mi
12109 Night Jasmine Cv Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2364	$3,150	$1.33	12d	1	0.76mi
11736 Dumaine Valley Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.77mi
11412 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	4.0	2523	$3,200	$1.27	26d	1	0.86mi
11519 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,600	$1.34	26d	1	0.89mi
11427 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,310	$1.21	7d	1	0.89mi
11424 Misty Isle Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,165	$1.18	14d	1	0.90mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	1d	1	1.03mi
13465 Fladgate Mark Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,045	$1.32	7d	1	1.03mi
12201 Matchfield Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,595	$1.05	19d	1	1.05mi
12115 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,850	$1.50	7d	1	1.05mi
12116 Feldwood Creek Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,825	$1.42	22d	1	1.08mi
12330 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$3,300	$1.40	7d	1	1.08mi
13230 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,830	$1.44	19d	1	1.11mi
12026 Bridge Point Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,180	$1.22	26d	1	1.16mi
13314 Prestwick Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	16d	1	1.23mi
12019 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1693	$2,230	$1.32	4d	1	1.23mi
12377 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2414	$2,800	$1.16	26d	1	1.25mi
13423 Beechberry Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2322	$2,795	$1.20	0d	1	1.25mi
12008 Butler Woods Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1544	$2,215	$1.43	0d	1	1.27mi
12111 Anderson Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,400	$1.85	26d	1	1.27mi
12401 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,600	$1.78	1d	1	1.29mi
11211 Flora Springs Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2320	$2,723	$1.17	26d	1	1.30mi
13655 Artesa Bell Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2351	$3,000	$1.28	0d	1	1.31mi
13305 Silvercreek Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,099	$1.20	7d	1	1.38mi
11931 Lark Song Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,050	$1.57	26d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $354,900
3. 2025-12-26
   price $364,900
4. 2025-10-14
   status Active
5. 2025-10-08
   status Pending
6. 2025-09-10
   price $369,900
7. 2025-08-17
   price $379,900
8. 2025-06-13
   listed $389,900 Active
9. 2025-05-15
   historical
10. 2025-02-14
    listed $399,980 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,235 · $770/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,235 · $770/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,880
• − Property taxes: −$9,235
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,994
• − Management: −$2,994
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable loss: −$9,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $364,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $369,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $379,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listed $399,980 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,235 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.