2609 W Southern Ave #182 · Tempe, AZ 85282

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a must see!!! Beautifully Remodeled home. Big three bedrooms 2 bath home with nice open floor plan. Property has new laminate flooring, new vinyl windows, New Ac, New roof. New appliances, Bathroom's have been updated with new cabinets, granite counter tops, Showers, Kitchen has been remodeled with new granite counter top, beautiful backsplash as well as new cabinets and new appliances , and a beautiful stainless steel hood over the stove, Lighting has been updated as well, New paint on interior and exterior, Ceiling Fans in every room. Has A new Water heater. This property is one of a kind with all the amazing upgrades. 55 plus community 40 plus depending on community availability, and Pet Friendly!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Remodeled kitchen
• Replaced ac unit

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• REPLACED ROOF
• REPLACED AC UNIT
• REPLACED VINYL WINDOWS
• REPLACED WATER HEATER
• REMODELED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 2,500 (owner provided)
• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease fee $875 monthly; Association trash service included; Gated community with guarded entry; Community pool and heated spa; Pickleball courts; Community spa; Community media room; Fitness center; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; RV access/parking; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Leasehold property; Manufactured / Mobile home
• Construction: Panelized construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Natural desert front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Vinyl frame windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.76%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 W Southern Ave #155	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (0%)	8mo	$30,000	$20	89
2609 W Southern Ave #450	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,536 (0%)	7mo	$45,000	$29	87
2609 W Southern Ave #60	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	2mo	$24,000	$17	83
2609 W Southern Ave #7	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	3mo	$32,000	$22	80
2401 W Southern Ave #335	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (0%)	5mo	$29,900	$19	78
2401 W Southern Ave #155	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-5%)	1mo	$84,900	$58	76
2609 W Southern Ave #180	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+9%)	4mo	$167,500	$100	73
2401 W Southern Ave #53	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-5%)	3mo	$129,000	$88	71
2401 W Southern Ave #249	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	0mo	$30,000	$21	71
2609 W Southern Ave #90	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$38,000	$28	71
2609 W Southern Ave #398	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	2mo	$17,500	$13	70
2401 W Southern Ave #113	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	5mo	$86,000	$64	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $12,911
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $42,242
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85282

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2381 W Garden Dr #2365 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,300	$1.60	1d	1	0.47mi
2381 W Garden Dr #2357 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,199	$1.52	17d	1	0.47mi
4365 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,985	$1.63	1d	1	0.47mi
4389 S Potter Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1396	$2,150	$1.54	1d	1	0.49mi
2348 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	17d	1	0.49mi
2349 W Garden Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,030	$1.45	1d	1	0.50mi
2150 W Alameda Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.5	1155	$1,899	$1.64	22d	1	0.56mi
1812 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.5	1148	$2,075	$1.81	1d	1	0.57mi
1818 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1148	$2,150	$1.87	10d	1	0.57mi
2401 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,700	$1.58	1d	1	0.67mi
4334 E Nancy Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2025	$1,100	$0.54	24d	1	0.70mi
6627 S 44th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1546	$2,145	$1.39	1d	1	0.72mi
6627 S 44th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1151	$1,100	$0.96	3d	1	0.72mi
6627 S 44th St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,500	$0.97	10d	1	0.72mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,900	$1.58	10d	1	0.72mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	14d	1	0.72mi
2231 W Fremont Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	0.72mi
4328 E Saint Catherine Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,000	$1.57	1d	1	0.72mi
5408 S 44th Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1518	$2,050	$1.35	1d	1	0.73mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,335	$2.65	1d	26	0.78mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	1d	1	0.83mi
4163 E Pecan Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,999	$1.69	14d	1	0.91mi
7409 S 46th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,975	$1.76	15d	1	0.91mi
4520 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,821	$2.41	1d	24	0.92mi
7027 S 43rd Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1203	$2,200	$1.83	24d	1	0.94mi
5736 S Daisy Patch Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,375	$1.46	1d	1	0.95mi
5630 S Daisy Patch Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,395	$1.47	1d	1	0.97mi
3615 S Margo Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1544	$3,000	$1.94	1d	1	0.99mi
4424 E Baseline Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,969	$2.12	1d	54	0.99mi
3527 S Shafer Dr Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	2172	$1,450	$0.67	1d	1	1.06mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,183	$2.30	10d	19	1.07mi
2520 S Plaza Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,928	$2.05	1d	15	1.07mi
2155 S 55th St Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,726	$2.55	1d	13	1.09mi
4106 E Chambers St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1881	$2,350	$1.25	1d	1	1.10mi
4005 E La Salle St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,859	$1.62	19d	1	1.15mi
6250 S 40th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,262	$2.17	1d	16	1.20mi
2100 S Priest Dr Unit 1386547P Tempe, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	973	$2,918	$3.00	4d	2	1.26mi
1016 W Manhatton Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,400	$1.38	17d	1	1.33mi
3922 E Carson Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,495	$1.41	4d	1	1.33mi
4014 S 44th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,595	$1.45	1d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    price $145,000
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 2024-01-18
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    This is a must see!!! Beautifully Remodeled home. Big three bedrooms 2 bath home with nice open floor plan. Property has new laminate flooring, new vinyl windows, New Ac, New roof. New appliances, Bathroom's have been updated with new cabinets, granite counter tops, Showers, Kitchen has been remodeled with new granite counter top, beautiful backsplash as well as new cabinets and new appliances , and a beautiful stainless steel hood over the stove, Lighting has been updated as well, New paint on interior and exterior, Ceiling Fans in every room. Has A new Water heater. This property is one of a kind with all the amazing upgrades. 55 plus community 40 plus depending on community availability, and Pet Friendly!

18. 2023-12-22
    status Pending 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    This is a must see!!! Beautifully Remodeled home. Big three bedrooms 2 bath home with nice open floor plan. Property has new laminate flooring, new vinyl windows, New Ac, New roof. New appliances, Bathroom's have been updated with new cabinets, granite counter tops, Showers, Kitchen has been remodeled with new granite counter top, beautiful backsplash as well as new cabinets and new appliances , and a beautiful stainless steel hood over the stove, Lighting has been updated as well, New paint on interior and exterior, Ceiling Fans in every room. Has A new Water heater. This property is one of a kind with all the amazing upgrades. 55 plus community 40 plus depending on community availability, and Pet Friendly!

19. 2023-12-07
    listed $144,900 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    This is a must see!!! Beautifully Remodeled home. Big three bedrooms 2 bath home with nice open floor plan. Property has new laminate flooring, new vinyl windows, New Ac, New roof. New appliances, Bathroom's have been updated with new cabinets, granite counter tops, Showers, Kitchen has been remodeled with new granite counter top, beautiful backsplash as well as new cabinets and new appliances , and a beautiful stainless steel hood over the stove, Lighting has been updated as well, New paint on interior and exterior, Ceiling Fans in every room. Has A new Water heater. This property is one of a kind with all the amazing upgrades. 55 plus community 40 plus depending on community availability, and Pet Friendly!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $6,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $6,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features an open floor plan with recent updates, including a new roof, AC unit, and laminate flooring. The property is in good condition and ready for move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating window treatments — New curtains and blinds improve light control and privacy
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating window treatments — New curtains and blinds improve light control and privacy ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,624
• Household income: $79,036
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2973.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.77%
• Current HPI: 353.6986
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $150,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Sold (MLS) $145,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-12-07 Listed $144,900 ARMLS