209 Sandy Beach Dr · Millsboro, DE 19939

$350,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2004 0.30 ac lot $195/sqft · 18% below area Est $421k · 17% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare find in this subdivision: Large 3BR, 2BA rancher with a 2-car garage situated on a manageable yard. Fully painted interior/doors and new carpet ordered to be installed. Septic system inspected and certified. The development of "Sandy Beach" has access to the Indian River, offering kayak drops and a small boat ramp. Enjoy fishing, crabbing and jet skiing too!

Key facts

• Small boat ramp
• Kayak drops
• Indian river access

Tags

• INDIAN RIVER ACCESS
• KAYAK DROPS
• SMALL BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Millsboro — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#44 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clayton (John M.) Elementary School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #43 of 105 statewide, top 40%, 481 students, 0% FRL); Selbyville Middle School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #12 of 36 statewide, top 34%, 719 students, 0% FRL); Indian River High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #10 of 40 statewide, top 26%, 1,088 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $350k implies a 1251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.13%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,345
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -16.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $148,360
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $470,261
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19939

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,091

Max offer price $253,879

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-422	-5% $-543	+0% $-664	+5% $-785	+10% $-906
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-753	+0% $-664	+5% $-575	+10% $-487
Rate	-1.0pp $-488	-0.5pp $-575	base $-664	+0.5pp $-755	+1.0pp $-847

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Alexandreas Ct Unit 2 Millsboro, DE	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,250	$1.12	15d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $350,000 Pending 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $350,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $350,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-04-16
   price $350,000 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   A rare find in this subdivision: Large 3BR, 2BA rancher with a 2-car garage situated on a manageable yard. Fully painted interior/doors and new carpet ordered to be installed. Septic system inspected and certified. The development of "Sandy Beach" has access to the Indian River, offering kayak drops and a small boat ramp. Enjoy fishing, crabbing and jet skiing too!

7. 2026-01-23
   listed $375,000 Active 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   A rare find in this subdivision: Large 3BR, 2BA rancher with a 2-car garage situated on a manageable yard. Fully painted interior/doors and new carpet ordered to be installed. Septic system inspected and certified. The development of "Sandy Beach" has access to the Indian River, offering kayak drops and a small boat ramp. Enjoy fishing, crabbing and jet skiing too!

8. 2001-11-05
   soldstatus $25,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$14,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Millsboro

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #12135

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 35,884
• Population (ZIP): 7,833

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% German 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.76%
• Current HPI: 312.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1251.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $314 · -39.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.