26281 Stroup St · Chain-O-Lakes, IN 46628

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1940 0.39 ac lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $131k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large country lot close to Chain-of-Lakes. Enjoy the 4 season porch all year round. Gas log fireplace in living room. 2 bedrooms up & 1 on the main floor. Large 1 car garage; size of 2 car, but only 1 overhead door.

Key facts

• 4 season porch
• Gas fireplace
• New septic system

Tags

• 4 SEASON PORCH
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• VIEWS OF POPULAR CHAIN-O-LAKES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family site-built home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built as site-built construction
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Ceiling fans; Window and wall cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.4% in Chain-O-Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #989 of 994 statewide, top 100%, 411 students, 90% FRL); Navarre Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #330 of 330 statewide, top 100%, 519 students, 83% FRL); Washington High School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #315 of 369 statewide, top 86%, 834 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $125k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.00%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,327
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -4.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54520 Norwood Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	857 (+3%)	4mo	$261,500	$305	84
26077 Kenwood Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	850 (+2%)	2mo	$249,900	$294	72
26666 Edison Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	924 (+11%)	1mo	$140,000	$152	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,804
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $56,316
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46628

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,194/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 322-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $125,000 Active 322-char remark
3. 2015-08-21
   soldstatus $47,000 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Large country lot close to Chain-of-Lakes. Enjoy the 4 season porch all year round. Gas log fireplace in living room. 2 bedrooms up & 1 on the main floor. Large 1 car garage; size of 2 car, but only 1 overhead door.

4. 2015-06-09
   listed $50,000 221-char remark

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Large country lot close to Chain-of-Lakes. Enjoy the 4 season porch all year round. Gas log fireplace in living room. 2 bedrooms up & 1 on the main floor. Large 1 car garage; size of 2 car, but only 1 overhead door.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,194 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,194 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,194
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$464
• After-tax cash flow: $3,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — Chain-O-Lakes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Joseph County · 189,048 people
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,685
• Household income: $61,759
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1024.0

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.47%
• Current HPI: 202.112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.78%
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $125,000 IRMLS
• 2015-08-21 Sold (MLS) $47,000 IRMLS
• 2015-06-09 Listed $50,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+30.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,194 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.