418 Pebblebrook Dr · Mount Juliet, TN 37122

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $750/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Like new and move-in ready! This 3 bed, 2 bath home in the Stonegate Manufactured Housing Community offers an incredible opportunity to own in the highly sought-after Mount Juliet school district at an affordable price point. Built in 2022 and originally used as a model home, this 1,025 sq ft singlewide still feels almost brand new. Enjoy an open layout, modern finishes, and low-maintenance living. Monthly lot rent is $750 and includes water, sewer, and trash. Community amenities feature a pool, playground, and clubhouse with shelter. Conveniently located near Providence shopping center, dining, and commuter routes. A rare chance to own instead of rent in one of Middle Tennessee’s mos

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Open layout
• Modern finishes

Tags

• MOUNT JULIET SCHOOL DISTRICT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $750 (includes water, sewer, and trash)

Exterior

• Parking: Two open parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level; Existing home
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 15 x 11, 11 x 10, and 15 x 9
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Security gate
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.8% in Mount Juliet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#48 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wilson County (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #10 of 139 in TN (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 957 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,927 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.97%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $19,819
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $66,373
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37122

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 957
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $228/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$750
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Providence Trl Mount Juliet, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$2,099	$1.92	12d	14	0.56mi
2500 Aventura Dr Mount Juliet, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,934	$1.84	2d	40	0.71mi
1125 Westwood Blvd Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1016	$2,265	$2.23	2d	22	0.87mi
2000 Buckhead Trl Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,899	$2.04	43d	17	0.90mi
1001 Providence Pkwy Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,914	$1.87	3d	18	0.96mi
630 Providence Trl Mt. Juliet, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,208	$2.03	1d	33	1.03mi
4675 Old Lebanon Dirt Rd Mount Juliet, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,706	$1.82	3d	4	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $750 · $9,000/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-04-28
   listed $85,000 Active 850-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $228 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 164.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$228
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,121
• − Management: −$2,121
• − HOA: −$9,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,292
• After-tax cash flow: $4,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Mount Juliet offers a good condition with modern finishes and low-maintenance living. A fresh coat of paint and updated flooring would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County
• NCES district ID: 4704550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,429
• Composite: 38.33/100
• National rank: #4225
• State rank: #10 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mount Juliet

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #7154

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Juliet, TN
• County: Wilson County · 144,921 people
• City population: 68,492
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 68,492
• Household income: $112,967
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 160,409 people
• By 2030: 176,099 · +9.8%
• By 2040: 206,769 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 235,383 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 302,144 · +88.4%
• By 2100: 343,710 · +114.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 29.4% · R 69.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.6pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+41.6 2008: R+36.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.85%
• Current HPI: 306.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $85,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-31.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $228 · -31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.