HC 31 Box 21 · Jasper, AR 72641

$159,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1996 Average condition 1.74 ac lot $146/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of a quiet dirt road, this charming home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience on 1.74 M/L acres in scenic Newton County. Featuring 1,092 M/L square feet, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is ideal for those looking to enjoy the peaceful beauty of the Ozarks while still being just a short 10-minute drive from Jasper. The home has a metal roof and an attached 1-car carport for added convenience. Step out back and take in the serene surroundings from the expansive covered deck that stretches the full length of the home—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying your morning coffee while soaking in the natural setting. Whether you're searching for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, privacy, and a prime location near the Buffalo River and all that Newton County has to offer

Key facts

• 1.74 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.5% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Jasper School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #115 of 238 in AR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.89%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,632
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -17.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $28,941
• Equity at exit: $24,326

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $95,492
• Equity at exit: $14,813

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72641

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-04-06
    listed $159,000 Active 888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of a quiet dirt road, this charming home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience on 1.74 M/L acres in scenic Newton County. Featuring 1,092 M/L square feet, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is ideal for those looking to enjoy the peaceful beauty of the Ozarks while still being just a short 10-minute drive from Jasper. The home has a metal roof and an attached 1-car carport for added convenience. Step out back and take in the serene surroundings from the expansive covered deck that stretches the full length of the home—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying your morning coffee while soaking in the natural setting. Whether you're searching for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, privacy, and a prime location near the Buffalo River and all that Newton County has to offer

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $8,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $8,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

A charming single-family home with average condition, offering a good starting point for cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping and overgrown grass
• Minor Driveway — Dirt driveway with some debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping and overgrown grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Driveway · Dirt driveway with some debris	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper School District
• NCES district ID: 0508240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,615
• Composite: 29.59/100
• National rank: #6480
• State rank: #115 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,063

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,052 people
• By 2030: 6,509 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 5,424 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 4,502 · -36.2%
• By 2075: 3,018 · -57.2%
• By 2100: 1,985 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.1% · R 81.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 195.4325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $159,000 NWARMLS