317 Clay St · Watertown, NY 13601

$229,900

3 bd · 16.0 ba · 3,750 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1950 8,777 sqft lot $61/sqft · 29% below area Est $427k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Here is a terrific investment opportunity and the majority of the work has been done allowing you to immediately turn a profit. Add a bit more sweat equity and there is a whole additional house that could bring in even more income!!! Truly this is a unique and financially sound opportunity! The 4 unit building has been almost completely renovated and is tenant occupied. The house in the back has been gutted to the studs and just needs to be finished back to its full potential. Please ask your agent for a full list of the updates that have been done. This one will not go VA as it is a 5 unit property and will require a commercial loan if financing.

Key facts

• Tenant occupied
• Gutted to the studs
• 4 unit building

Tags

• 4 UNIT BUILDING
• ALMOST COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• TENANT OCCUPIED
• GUTTED TO THE STUDS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $229,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$427,004) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 5-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,436/mo this rent would consume 152% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1634% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $230k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $216,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.04%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,004
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -46.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Academy St	0.45mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,631 (-3%)	6mo	$170,000	$47	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $282,385
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.0%
• Equity multiple: 13.21×
• Total profit: $785,854
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,065/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,562
• Net cashflow: $4,401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,531	-5% $4,466	+0% $4,401	+5% $4,336	+10% $4,271
Rent	-10% $3,814	-5% $4,107	+0% $4,401	+5% $4,695	+10% $4,988
Rate	-1.0pp $4,517	-0.5pp $4,459	base $4,401	+0.5pp $4,341	+1.0pp $4,281

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	5	4	$7,436
Total (4 units)			$7,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
417 Franklin St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$1,750	$0.58	44d	1	0.15mi
702 Leray St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	2700	$1,300	$0.48	44d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-23
   listed $229,900 Active 655-char remark

   Show marketing remark (655 chars)

   Here is a terrific investment opportunity and the majority of the work has been done allowing you to immediately turn a profit. Add a bit more sweat equity and there is a whole additional house that could bring in even more income!!! Truly this is a unique and financially sound opportunity! The 4 unit building has been almost completely renovated and is tenant occupied. The house in the back has been gutted to the studs and just needs to be finished back to its full potential. Please ask your agent for a full list of the updates that have been done. This one will not go VA as it is a 5 unit property and will require a commercial loan if financing.

2. 2025-10-16
   listed $229,900 Active 656-char remark

   Show marketing remark (656 chars)

   Here is a terrific investment opportunity and the majority of the work has been done allowing you to immediately turn a profit. Add a bit more sweat equity and there is a whole additional house that could bring in even more income!!! Truly this is a unique and financially sound opportunity! The 4 unit building has been almost completely renovated and is fully occupied. The house in the back has been gutted to the studs and just needs to be finished back to its full potential. Please ask your agent for a full list of the updates that have been done. This one will not go VA as it is a 5 unit property and will require a commercial loan if financing.

3. 2025-10-03
   historical
4. 2025-07-22
   price $229,900
5. 2025-04-04
   price $239,900
6. 2025-01-15
   price $249,900
7. 2024-10-06
   listed $259,900 Active
8. 2021-02-05
   soldstatus $145,000
9. 2021-02-02
   soldstatus $145,000
10. 2021-02-01
    soldstatus $145,000
11. 2020-09-14
    listed $149,900
12. 2020-09-05
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,065 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,975 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$910/yr (+$76/mo · 44.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,065
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,139
• − Management: −$7,139
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $52,175
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,522
• After-tax cash flow: $40,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+53.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $229,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $229,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,900 CNYIS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $239,900 CNYIS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2024-10-06 Listed $259,900 CNYIS
• 2021-02-05 Sold (MLS) $145,000 CNYIS
• 2021-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-01 Sold (MLS) $145,000 CNYIS
• 2020-09-14 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2020-09-05 Listed $149,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,065 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.