10114 Lipsey Dr · San Carlos, TX 78542

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and move-in ready, this cozy home offers comfort, functionality, and plenty of outdoor space on nearly half an acre. The property features a well-maintained interior that's ready for its next owner to enjoy from day one. The main property features 2 bedrooms and one full bath. A detached quarters provides added flexibility—perfect for guests, a home office, hobby space, or potential rental opportunities. With ample room to garden, entertain, or expand, this property offers the ideal blend of country-style living with everyday convenience. Don't miss this unique opportunity to own a home with space, versatility, and endless potential.

Key facts

• Garden
• Detached quarters
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• DETACHED QUARTERS
• GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.456 acres (about 19,855 sq ft)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total covered parking spaces; 2-car carport (attached); Garage faces side (no enclosed garage spaces listed)
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Electric service (implied by electric water heater)
• Home design: Siding exterior
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Manual gate; Mature trees; Deck, balcony or porch; Detached quarters and storage structure; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Living area includes bedroom space (1 living area listed)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Granite and other natural stone countertops; Tile countertops; Ceiling fans; Drapes and mini blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area; Electric water heater; Water heater located in an exterior/other location

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,296 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Middle (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,065 students, 91% FRL); Edinburg H S (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,433 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 62% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1011 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,837 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-27,573
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,596
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78542

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1011
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $918 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,679/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,030

Max offer price $103,449

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-54	+0% $-88	+5% $-122	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-124	+0% $-88	+5% $-52	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-58	base $-88	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 650-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,679 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 29.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 6% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,679
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$882
• − Management: −$882
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$3,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$755
• After-tax cash flow: $-302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Carlos

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1296
• US rank: #22514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Carlos, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 89,401
• Household income: $55,243
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 59% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.17%
• Current HPI: 220.921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $119,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2019-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,679 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.