730 Otsego St · Havre de Grace, MD 21078

$209,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1935 4,200 sqft lot $156/sqft · 32% below area Est $305k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom 1 bath detached home in downtown Havre de Grace available now! Showings are now available!

Key facts

• 4,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.5% in Havre de Grace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#32 in MD, #1,087 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,619 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,200
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -31.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 N Adams St	0.06mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,348 (+0%)	18mo	$316,000	$234	75
516 N Adams St	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,528 (+14%)	3mo	$380,000	$249	62
825 N Juniata St N	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (-9%)	10mo	$250,000	$204	62
719 Warren St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	13mo	$270,000	$176	54
609 N Stokes St	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,208 (-10%)	20mo	$285,000	$236	52
101 Garfield Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-4%)	19mo	$298,000	$232	51
610 Lewis St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,269 (-6%)	6mo	$377,500	$297	47
1227 Ontario Extension St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-9%)	8mo	$370,000	$303	44
708 Lewis St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,230 (-8%)	4mo	$331,000	$269	42
114 Francis St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-12%)	11mo	$315,000	$268	37
704 Lewis St	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,504 (+12%)	6mo	$340,000	$226	31
738 Tydings Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,142 (-15%)	19mo	$354,900	$311	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,818
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,449
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21078

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,691/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $265	+0% $206	+5% $146	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $53	-5% $129	+0% $206	+5% $282	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $259	base $206	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Water St Havre de Grace, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,475	$1.37	2d	1	0.22mi
517 Bourbon St Havre de Grace, MD	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,695	$1.03	13d	1	0.47mi
1232 Battery Dr Havre de Grace, MD	4.0	1.5	1320	$1,850	$1.40	44d	1	0.98mi
434 Battery Dr Havre de Grace, MD	3.0	1.5	1180	$1,950	$1.65	2d	2	1.02mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $209,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $229,000 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    4 bedroom 1 bath detached home in downtown Havre de Grace available now! Showings are now available!

16. 2026-04-20
    listed $249,000 Active 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    4 bedroom 1 bath detached home in downtown Havre de Grace available now! Showings are now available!

17. 2014-01-06
    historical
18. 2013-04-30
    listed Active
19. 2012-12-10
    historical Withdrawn
20. 2012-01-02
    status Active
21. 2012-01-01
    historical
22. 2011-08-10
    price
23. 2011-05-23
    listed Active
24. 1988-02-17
    soldstatus $180,000
25. 1988-02-17
    soldstatus $12,000
26. 1988-02-17
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,691 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,691
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $2,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Havre de Grace

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1087

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Havre de Grace, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 20,030
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 20,030
• Household income: $106,667
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 327.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 12% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.95%
• Current HPI: 239.1951
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-04-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2012-12-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-01-02 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-01-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-08-10 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-05-23 Listed — MRIS
• 1988-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,691 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.