239 Cove View Dr · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1990 7,065 sqft lot $118/sqft · 37% below area Est $223k · 37% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a cute updated cottage with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a stunning view of the lake! Theres a nice kitchen, beautiful staircase, and beautiful decks outside. The neighborhood offers lake access via a boat ramp, a park with a playground, and a community center. This is your perfect getaway!

Key facts

• Community center
• Updated cottage
• Stunning view

Tags

• UPDATED COTTAGE
• STUNNING VIEW
• LAKE ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• COMMUNITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($865/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $244 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-724 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,145 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,811
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -37.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Rabbit Run St	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-15%)	20mo	$105,000	$104	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,870
• Equity at exit: $37,071

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,057
• Equity at exit: $41,795

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,522/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $112	+0% $72	+5% $32	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $22	+0% $72	+5% $122	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $108	base $72	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $161,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $161,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $161,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $161,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $161,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $161,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $161,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $161,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $161,000 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This is a cute updated cottage with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a stunning view of the lake! Theres a nice kitchen, beautiful staircase, and beautiful decks outside. The neighborhood offers lake access via a boat ramp, a park with a playground, and a community center. This is your perfect getaway!

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $175,000 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    This is a cute updated cottage with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a stunning view of the lake! Theres a nice kitchen, beautiful staircase, and beautiful decks outside. The neighborhood offers lake access via a boat ramp, a park with a playground, and a community center. This is your perfect getaway!

19. 2025-10-28
    historical
20. 2025-06-04
    listed $168,900 Active
21. 2021-12-29
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2021-11-16
    status Pending
23. 2021-11-06
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,522 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,040/yr (+$87/mo · 68.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,522
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$354
• After-tax cash flow: $1,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $161,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $168,900 HARMLS
• 2021-12-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-06 Listed $165,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,522 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.