39437 Elgin Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$147,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1977 7,800 sqft lot Est $107k · 38% over $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GEM ESTATES: There are larger lots in this community than most and larger pets ok. No lot rent here and the low yearly fee covers water and use of the recreational facilities. 2 bedroom, 2 bath with front glass enclosed Florida room and is being sold FURNISHED with everything you need to get started. Formal dining area with built in china buffet accented with laminate and many replacement windows. Walk in shower in the master bath and large master bedroom. The carport accommodates 2 cars under roof and there is a utility storage at one end. This community is not far from grocery and eateries. Perfect for year round living or your winter nest!

Key facts

• Large screened room
• Florida room
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• LARGE SCREENED ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DINING AREA WITH BUILT-INS
• LIVING ROOM WITH CARPETING
• GUEST BATH WITH TUB AND SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association contact listed; Directions: Drive east on North Avenue, then turn onto Elgin Drive; home is on the left
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with required approval; Monthly HOA fee approximately $29.17 (annual $350); HOA includes water; Clubhouse; Association recreation owned; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; cats and dogs OK

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Public utilities available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Outdoor storage; Chain link fencing; Level, oversized, paved lot; Asphalt-paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $147k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,770 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,848
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39652 Elgin Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	960 (-5%)	10mo	$143,000	$149	72
39613 Sterling Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-11%)	3mo	$95,000	$106	66
6246 Midland St	0.58mi	3/2.0	960 (-5%)	4mo	$101,000	$105	62
39153 Hillcrest Dr	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	932 (-8%)	5mo	$70,000	$75	57
39115 Ola Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	1mo	$120,000	$125	54
39047 Hillcrest Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-11%)	8mo	$100,000	$112	46
6233 Ohio St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+14%)	13mo	$120,000	$104	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,803
• Equity at exit: $21,918

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-283
• Equity at exit: $12,710

Cash invested: $41,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $877/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,183

Max offer price $147,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,750
• Closing costs: $4,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	13d	1	0.39mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.41mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	18d	1	0.51mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.55mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.55mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.58mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.60mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	0.60mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	0.61mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.63mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	0.65mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	15d	1	0.68mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.74mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.79mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	0.80mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	20d	1	0.94mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	5d	1	1.08mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	1.15mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.16mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	1.18mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	5d	1	1.20mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	1.23mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.24mi
4940 9th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	1.25mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	24d	1	1.27mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.27mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.30mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	13d	1	1.33mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.37mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.44mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $147,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $147,000
15. 2026-03-02
    listed $149,000 Active
16. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus $77,000
17. 2021-03-02
    soldstatus $77,000 Sold 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    GEM ESTATES: There are larger lots in this community than most and larger pets ok. No lot rent here and the low yearly fee covers water and use of the recreational facilities. 2 bedroom, 2 bath with front glass enclosed Florida room and is being sold FURNISHED with everything you need to get started. Formal dining area with built in china buffet accented with laminate and many replacement windows. Walk in shower in the master bath and large master bedroom. The carport accommodates 2 cars under roof and there is a utility storage at one end. This community is not far from grocery and eateries. Perfect for year round living or your winter nest!

18. 2021-02-01
    status Pending 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    GEM ESTATES: There are larger lots in this community than most and larger pets ok. No lot rent here and the low yearly fee covers water and use of the recreational facilities. 2 bedroom, 2 bath with front glass enclosed Florida room and is being sold FURNISHED with everything you need to get started. Formal dining area with built in china buffet accented with laminate and many replacement windows. Walk in shower in the master bath and large master bedroom. The carport accommodates 2 cars under roof and there is a utility storage at one end. This community is not far from grocery and eateries. Perfect for year round living or your winter nest!

19. 2021-01-26
    listed $78,900 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    GEM ESTATES: There are larger lots in this community than most and larger pets ok. No lot rent here and the low yearly fee covers water and use of the recreational facilities. 2 bedroom, 2 bath with front glass enclosed Florida room and is being sold FURNISHED with everything you need to get started. Formal dining area with built in china buffet accented with laminate and many replacement windows. Walk in shower in the master bath and large master bedroom. The carport accommodates 2 cars under roof and there is a utility storage at one end. This community is not far from grocery and eateries. Perfect for year round living or your winter nest!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 39.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,234
• − Property taxes: −$877
• − Insurance: −$735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,276
• Taxable income: $1,387
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$333
• After-tax cash flow: $3,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+86.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-02 Sold (MLS) $77,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-26 Listed $78,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $877 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.