612 N 4th St · Smithfield, NC 27577

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1942 0.33 ac lot Est $243k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch ideally located just minutes from Downtown Smithfield! This move-in ready home has been thoughtfully updated from top to bottom, offering peace of mind and modern comfort. Recent upgrades include a brand new roof, new HVAC system with updated ductwork, new flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and updated electrical and plumbing. The kitchen shines with new cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and a convenient laundry area. Enjoy gatherings in the spacious formal dining room, perfect for entertaining. The remodeled bathroom features a walk-in shower, while all three bedrooms o

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Remodeled ranch
• New flooring

Tags

• REMODELED RANCH
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property updated for resale
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking; On-street parking; Unpaved parking area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house; Updated / remodeled condition; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as a house (one level)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; City street frontage; Publicly maintained asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Walk-in shower
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($699/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#259 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $210k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,094 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Hancock St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (+7%)	9mo	$260,000	$243	64
28 W Edgerton St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,101 (+10%)	13mo	$64,000	$58	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-35,436
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-45,929
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,452/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Cambridge Pl Smithfield, NC	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,399	$1.30	24d	1	0.83mi
204 E Davis St Smithfield, NC	3.0	1.0	1426	$1,350	$0.95	4d	1	0.94mi
303 Sunrise Ave Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,675	$1.46	24d	1	1.22mi
206 Britt St Smithfield, NC	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,650	$1.48	24d	1	1.32mi
510 Crump St Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $209,900
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $219,900 Active
17. 2026-01-15
    price $225,000
18. 2025-12-11
    price $235,000
19. 2025-11-04
    status Active
20. 2025-09-22
    status Pending
21. 2025-09-22
    historical
22. 2025-09-08
    listed $240,000 Active
23. 2024-12-10
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,452
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$2,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $1,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #11380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 28,354
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+319.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $209,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $219,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $225,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $235,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-09-22 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $240,000 TMLS
• 2024-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,452 · +139.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.