Flowerdale Plan · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$380,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · SingleFamily · 872 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 872 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 75768 Lily Pond Ct, Yulee FL 32097; Status: Active; Listing modified May 22, 2026
• Financial info: List price $380,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan; Flowerdale plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1961

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Flowerdale)

🏗️ New construction. The $380,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $403,966.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $381k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 872 days — a 12% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,696 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 872 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.35%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $403,966
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75276 Pondside Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,126 (+8%)	2mo	$390,000	$183	76
75767 Spoonbill Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,006 (+2%)	2mo	$412,500	$206	75
75315 Plumbago	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-8%)	1mo	$387,500	$214	68
75743 Bayley Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+0%)	3mo	$406,138	$206	63
75190 Red Twig Way	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,011 (+2%)	4mo	$410,000	$204	62
75837 Pondside Ln	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,006 (+2%)	2mo	$420,000	$209	60
75566 Banyan Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+8%)	6mo	$421,596	$199	56
75309 White Rabbit Ave	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,075 (+6%)	4mo	$431,000	$208	54
75735 Bayley Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+8%)	2mo	$422,400	$200	51
75730 Pondside Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,737 (-11%)	6mo	$375,000	$216	50
75775 Bayley Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+8%)	4mo	$420,400	$199	50
75719 Bayley Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,712 (-13%)	3mo	$398,000	$232	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $169,586
• Equity at exit: $363,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $538,304
• Equity at exit: $784,817

Cash invested: $113,110 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,118
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$505 /mo · $6,059/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,534

Max offer price $290,012

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-508	-5% $-648	+0% $-788	+5% $-927	+10% $-1,067
Rent	-10% $-988	-5% $-888	+0% $-788	+5% $-687	+10% $-587
Rate	-1.0pp $-584	-0.5pp $-685	base $-788	+0.5pp $-892	+1.0pp $-999

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,992
• Closing costs: $12,119
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	3d	1	1.07mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.13mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	12d	1	1.22mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	22d	1	1.26mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.27mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	6d	1	1.34mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $380,900 Active 872 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,900 Active 869 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,900 Active 868 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,900 Active 867 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,900 Active 866 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,900 Active 864 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,900 Active 863 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,900 Active 860 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $380,900 Active 859 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $380,900 Active 858 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $380,900 Active 855 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,900 Active 854 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $380,900 Active 853 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,900 Active 852 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,900 Active 851 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,628
• − Property taxes: −$6,059
• − Insurance: −$2,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − Depreciation: −$11,752
• Taxable loss: −$16,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B