15 Rosebriar Ln · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1998 0.51 ac lot Est $1290k · 12% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

IMPECCABLY MAINTAINED IN EAST QUOGUE Located on a half-acre in East Quogue, 15 Rosebriar Lane offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,964± SF of impeccably maintained living space with a heated pool and fenced backyard. The first floor features a welcoming foyer, living room with wood-burning fireplace and built-in bookcases, formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, pantry, breakfast nook, and new (2026) GE appliances. Just off the kitchen, the den opens to the backyard through sliding glass doors, creating an easy indoor-outdoor flow. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a vaulted ceiling, 6' x 11' walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with double vanity, jett

Key facts

• Built in bookcases
• New ge appliances
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN BOOKCASES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW GE APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage; Garage present (detached/attached type not specified); No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Private in-ground vinyl pool; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Electric range / oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not explicitly provided)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning; Fireplace (1)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central vacuum; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Granite counters; Primary bathroom; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Unfinished basement; Unfinished attic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($72k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.45M).
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.43M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $399k; list at $1.45M implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,427,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,290,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Eisenhower Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	2,000 (+2%)	14mo	$1,600,000	$800	70
4 Beechnut Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-8%)	10mo	$1,160,000	$644	66
5 Tamarack Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+7%)	10mo	$1,380,000	$657	65
5 Canvasback Ln	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-3%)	2mo	$1,250,000	$659	63
33 Eisenhower Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,066 (+5%)	22mo	$860,000	$416	54
16 Squires Ave	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (-6%)	5mo	$1,060,000	$576	54
50 Sherwood Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,804 (-8%)	7mo	$1,099,000	$609	53
7 Washington Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,060 (+5%)	13mo	$1,100,000	$534	53
44 Head Of Lots Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,811 (-8%)	21mo	$1,479,000	$817	50
4 Pine Tree Ct	0.50mi	3/3.5	1,700 (-13%)	0mo	$1,485,000	$874	48
15 Canvasback Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,890 (-4%)	20mo	$865,000	$458	48
15 Osprey Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,200 (+12%)	2mo	$1,700,000	$773	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $147,065
• Equity at exit: $216,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $618,487
• Equity at exit: $125,283

Cash invested: $405,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,599
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,163/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,935
• Net cashflow: $6,003

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,138

Max offer price $1,449,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,250
• Closing costs: $43,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	24d	1	0.23mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	17d	1	0.30mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	5d	1	0.30mi
4 Aerie Way East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2400	$11,000	$4.58	15d	1	0.32mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	43d	1	0.34mi
10 Foxboro Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2308	$17,000	$7.37	43d	1	0.57mi
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	22d	1	0.69mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	17d	1	0.83mi
23 Whiting Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2296	$60,000	$26.13	22d	1	0.97mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	24d	1	0.97mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	43d	1	0.98mi
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	43d	1	1.02mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	1d	1	1.13mi
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	43d	1	1.35mi
2 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2280	$80,000	$35.09	22d	1	1.35mi
73 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2400	$25,000	$10.42	19d	1	1.42mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	5d	1	1.42mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	19d	1	1.43mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,449,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,449,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,449,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,449,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,449,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,449,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $1,449,000 Active
16. 2002-11-13
    soldstatus $399,000
17. 1998-05-01
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,163 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,825 · $1,319/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,663/yr (+$722/mo · 120.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $224,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,167
• − Property taxes: −$7,163
• − Insurance: −$7,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,988
• − Management: −$17,988
• − Depreciation: −$42,153
• Taxable income: $51,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,274
• After-tax cash flow: $59,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2398.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $1,449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $399,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $7,163 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.