13946 E Hwy 31 E · New Chapel Hill, TX 75705

$178,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1961 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Unrestricted 2 (+/-) acres just East of Tyler. 3 Bedrooms, 2 full baths, 2 car garage + 25 X 25 shop with overhead doors. Automatic entry gate, paved driveway, lots of large mature oak trees, fenced yard, sits well back off SH 31 for tons of privacy. Home has central heat and air conditioning (heat pump), wood burning fireplace, huge closets and storage, washer dryer hook-ups, and 2 water supplies (community water plus a private water well that works).

Key facts

• Automatic entry gate
• Fenced yard
• Huge closets

Tags

• AUTOMATIC ENTRY GATE
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• LARGE MATURE OAK TREES
• FENCED YARD
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• HUGE CLOSETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Gravel and paved parking areas
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family detached residence; 1 story
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Composition roof; Satellite dish; Storage structure; Workshop; Irregular, wooded lot (approximately 2 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W L Kissam Int (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 696 students, 81% FRL); Chapel Hill J H (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 502 students, 77% FRL); Chapel Hill H S (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,063 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.20%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $30,136
• Equity at exit: $60,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $94,208
• Equity at exit: $80,368

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75705

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,147/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $474	+0% $424	+5% $373	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $343	+0% $424	+5% $504	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $469	base $424	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $178,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,147 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,110/yr (+$93/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,147
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable income: $2,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$566
• After-tax cash flow: $4,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,891
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7603
• State rank: #650 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Chapel Hill

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1275
• US rank: #22160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,355
• Population (ZIP): 1,471

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 6% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 144.823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $178,000 GTAR

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,147 · +21.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.