1407 Middle Rd #83 · Calverton, NY 11933

$425,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $374k · 14% over $839/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches.Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances.2New Baths,New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater.Mstr Suite W/3 Closets.Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping.Security System.Taxes W/Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Min Age:55

Key facts

• Gated community
• Crawl space
• New siding

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• CRAWL SPACE
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community has an association; Monthly association fee of $839; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, and pool; Association fee covers common area maintenance, pool service, snow removal, trash, water, and other items; One-time owner transfer fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: 1-space carport; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer via cesspool / shared septic
• Home design: Manufactured house / manufactured home
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Other body type (manufactured)
• Exterior features: Deck; Concrete perimeter foundation; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Eat-in layout; Dishwasher; Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Primary bathroom; Interior storage; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane, ENERGY STAR qualified, newly installed windows; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Basement with Bilco door(s), partial crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $412k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $425k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $412,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.67%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $373,996
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 unit 4 Middle Rd #4	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	9mo	$425,000	$304	88
1407 Middle Rd #258	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+9%)	4mo	$525,000	$335	78
1661 Old Country Rd Unit 351B	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-4%)	3mo	$360,000	$259	60
433 Mill Rd Unit 1	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$167,000	$124	55
1661 Old Country Rd #120	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$225,000	$167	50
1661 Old Country Rd #500	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	8mo	$320,000	$204	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $194,560
• Equity at exit: $197,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $494,535
• Equity at exit: $309,071

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$839
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $2,149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,780

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Mastro Ct Calverton, NY	3.0	2.5	1822	$7,500	$4.12	1d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $839 · $10,068/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingsecurity

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $425,000 Active
15. 2014-01-16
    soldstatus $133,500 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

16. 2014-01-16
    soldstatus $133,500 Closed 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

17. 2014-01-09
    soldstatus $133,500 Closed
18. 2014-01-09
    soldstatus $133,500
19. 2013-11-11
    price $139,999

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

20. 2013-11-11
    price $139,999 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

21. 2013-08-27
    price $145,500

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

22. 2013-08-27
    price $145,500 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

23. 2013-07-05
    price $149,700 Price Change
24. 2013-07-03
    price $149,700 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

25. 2013-06-13
    listed $159,700 New
26. 2013-05-31
    price $159,700 Price Change 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches. Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances. 2New Baths, New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater. Mstr Suite W/ 3 Closets. Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping. Security System. Taxes W/ Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings

27. 2013-01-22
    listed $169,000 New 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches.Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances.2New Baths,New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater.Mstr Suite W/3 Closets.Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping.Security System.Taxes W/Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Min Age:55

28. 2013-01-22
    listed $139,999 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches.Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances.2New Baths,New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater.Mstr Suite W/3 Closets.Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping.Security System.Taxes W/Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Min Age:55

29. 2013-01-22
    listed $139,999

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Bright & Spacious Ranch In +55 Gated Community On The Wine Trail Near Beaches.Chefs Kit With Granite & Ceramic Tile & New Appliances.2New Baths,New Gas Heating System & New Hot Water Heater.Mstr Suite W/3 Closets.Private Deck Overlooks Mature Landscaping.Security System.Taxes W/Star $1992.Owner Upgraded To Gas Heating System For $5,000.Year Cost Savings, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Min Age:55

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − HOA: −$10,068
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $20,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,007
• After-tax cash flow: $20,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+203.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-16 Sold (MLS) $133,500 MLSLI
• 2014-01-16 Sold (MLS) $133,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-09 Sold (MLS) $133,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-09 Sold (MLS) $133,500 MLSLI
• 2013-11-11 Price Changed $139,999 MLSLI
• 2013-11-11 Price Changed $139,999 MLSLI
• 2013-08-27 Price Changed $145,500 MLSLI
• 2013-08-27 Price Changed $145,500 MLSLI
• 2013-07-05 Price Changed $149,700 MLSLI
• 2013-07-03 Price Changed $149,700 MLSLI
• 2013-06-13 Listed $159,700 MLSLI
• 2013-05-31 Price Changed $159,700 MLSLI
• 2013-01-22 Listed $169,000 MLSLI
• 2013-01-22 Listed $139,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-22 Listed $139,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid