538/558 Chloe Rd · Pikeville, KY 41501

$114,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 847 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1950 0.70 ac lot $135/sqft · 28% above area Est $212k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-- Agent/Owner -- 538 and 558 Chloe Rd; Two homes for the price of one or demo the homes and build on this prime piece of land in a great neighborhood! This is a perfect opportunity for investors/rental property owners. Located within Pikeville city limits and only a mile from downtown, it's a perfect location for UPike student rentals! Both homes are vacant and need extensive repairs/renovations if kept. Listing is priced based on the land values only. Listing agent is the owner of the subject properties. Selling as-is with no warranties given or implied. Church beside property is deeded separately and is not included in this sale.

Key facts

• Extensive repairs
• Prime piece of land
• Renovations

Tags

• PRIME PIECE OF LAND
• EXTENSIVE REPAIRS
• RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pikeville Independent (rural): math 67% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #3 of 165 in KY (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $792 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,133 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,971
• List price: $114,500
• Delta: -45.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
893 Harolds Br	0.69mi	2/1.0	780 (-8%)	9mo	$75,000	$96	47
897 Harolds Branch Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	928 (+10%)	6mo	$135,000	$145	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-29,792
• Equity at exit: $17,072

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-40,263
• Equity at exit: $9,900

Cash invested: $32,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41501

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$600
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$143 /mo · $1,718/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $88,846

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,625
• Closing costs: $3,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,500 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,500 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,500 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,500 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,500 Active 359 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,500 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,500 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,500 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,500 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-02-16
    price $114,500 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    -- Agent/Owner -- 538 and 558 Chloe Rd; Two homes for the price of one or demo the homes and build on this prime piece of land in a great neighborhood! This is a perfect opportunity for investors/rental property owners. Located within Pikeville city limits and only a mile from downtown, it's a perfect location for UPike student rentals! Both homes are vacant and need extensive repairs/renovations if kept. Listing is priced based on the land values only. Listing agent is the owner of the subject properties. Selling as-is with no warranties given or implied. Church beside property is deeded separately and is not included in this sale.

11. 2025-12-05
    price $115,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    -- Agent/Owner -- 538 and 558 Chloe Rd; Two homes for the price of one or demo the homes and build on this prime piece of land in a great neighborhood! This is a perfect opportunity for investors/rental property owners. Located within Pikeville city limits and only a mile from downtown, it's a perfect location for UPike student rentals! Both homes are vacant and need extensive repairs/renovations if kept. Listing is priced based on the land values only. Listing agent is the owner of the subject properties. Selling as-is with no warranties given or implied. Church beside property is deeded separately and is not included in this sale.

12. 2025-09-05
    price $119,999 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    -- Agent/Owner -- 538 and 558 Chloe Rd; Two homes for the price of one or demo the homes and build on this prime piece of land in a great neighborhood! This is a perfect opportunity for investors/rental property owners. Located within Pikeville city limits and only a mile from downtown, it's a perfect location for UPike student rentals! Both homes are vacant and need extensive repairs/renovations if kept. Listing is priced based on the land values only. Listing agent is the owner of the subject properties. Selling as-is with no warranties given or implied. Church beside property is deeded separately and is not included in this sale.

13. 2025-06-09
    listed $125,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    -- Agent/Owner -- 538 and 558 Chloe Rd; Two homes for the price of one or demo the homes and build on this prime piece of land in a great neighborhood! This is a perfect opportunity for investors/rental property owners. Located within Pikeville city limits and only a mile from downtown, it's a perfect location for UPike student rentals! Both homes are vacant and need extensive repairs/renovations if kept. Listing is priced based on the land values only. Listing agent is the owner of the subject properties. Selling as-is with no warranties given or implied. Church beside property is deeded separately and is not included in this sale.

14. 2025-01-16
    price $45,000
15. 2024-12-23
    price $48,000
16. 2024-10-14
    price $48,500
17. 2024-09-11
    price $49,000
18. 2024-08-09
    price $49,500
19. 2024-05-31
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,414
• − Property taxes: −$1,718
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$827
• − Management: −$827
• − Depreciation: −$3,331
• Taxable loss: −$4,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pikeville Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104830
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,735
• Composite: 53.69/100
• National rank: #1426
• State rank: #3 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pikeville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,272

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.56%
• Current HPI: 193.2408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+129.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $114,500 EKAR
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $115,000 EKAR
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $119,999 EKAR
• 2025-06-09 Listed $125,000 EKAR
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $45,000 EKAR
• 2024-12-23 Price Changed $48,000 EKAR
• 2024-10-14 Price Changed $48,500 EKAR
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $49,000 EKAR
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $49,500 EKAR
• 2024-05-31 Listed $50,000 EKAR

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $74 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.