6 Holley Rd · Edgemont, AR 72044

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Built 2008 8,712 sqft lot $146/sqft · 29% below area Est $248k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A true Abe Lincoln log home featuring 2 bedrooms, one up, one down, and 2 baths, one up with a walk-in shower, one down with a tub. Has a loft area upstairs with a closet that could be used for another sleeping area, living area, or home office. Storage area under front porch. A fire pit for enjoying time with friends and family. If you're looking for a weekend getaway, full-time home, or a vacation rental, this is it. Located between Greers Ferry and Fairfield Bay, so close to several different marinas, restaurants, and shopping. It's in the area behind the Edgemont Post Office. No restrictions.

Key facts

• Loft area upstairs
• Fire pit
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• LOFT AREA UPSTAIRS
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (42.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (42.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,666 (42.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.14%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,541
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -29.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,725
• Equity at exit: $104,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $77,376
• Equity at exit: $184,200

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72044

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $115,076

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $175,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Price Change 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Price Change 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Price Change 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Price Change 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $175,000 Price Change 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 171 DOM
17. 2025-12-09
    listed $185,000 New Listing 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    A true Abe Lincoln log home featuring 2 bedrooms, one up, one down, and 2 baths, one up with a walk-in shower, one down with a tub. Has a loft area upstairs with a closet that could be used for another sleeping area, living area, or home office. Storage area under front porch. A fire pit for enjoying time with friends and family. If you're looking for a weekend getaway, full-time home, or a vacation rental, this is it. Located between Greers Ferry and Fairfield Bay, so close to several different marinas, restaurants, and shopping. It's in the area behind the Edgemont Post Office. No restrictions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$8,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Side School District
• NCES district ID: 0514040
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,658
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #6551
• State rank: #118 of 238 in AR

Livability — Edgemont

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Edgemont, AR
• Population (ZIP): 1,286

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Native American 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.47%
• Current HPI: 247.1357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $185,000 CARMLS