5103 Raven St · North Port, FL 34286

$375,472

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Land · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to this magnificent under construction home- 3 bedrooms and a den/study/4th bedroom, two baths, a formal living room and dining room and large, inside laundry. Nestled in a vibrant North Port area, this home provides ample room for you, your family, and your guests to enjoy. Vaulted ceilings give this house spaciousness and an airy feel, creating a sense of grandeur in the living area, and allowing the natural light to make the space feel even larger and more inviting. Ceramic plank tile flooring throughout except in the bedrooms, designer LED recessed lighting, 36' upper cabinets with crown molding, quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths, stainless steel ap

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• 36 upper cabinets
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• CERAMIC PLANK TILE FLOORING
• DESIGNER LED RECESSED LIGHTING
• 36 UPPER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE PANE INSULATED WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lamarque Elementary School (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,073 students, 68% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 978 students, 55% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 42% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,732 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-105,537
• Equity at exit: $55,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-161,650
• Equity at exit: $32,464

Cash invested: $105,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34286

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,969
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,632/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,285

Max offer price $284,336

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-370	-5% $-500	+0% $-630	+5% $-760	+10% $-889
Rent	-10% $-826	-5% $-728	+0% $-630	+5% $-532	+10% $-433
Rate	-1.0pp $-441	-0.5pp $-534	base $-630	+0.5pp $-727	+1.0pp $-826

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,868
• Closing costs: $11,264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,472 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,472 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $375,472 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-25
   listed $375,472 Active
6. 2021-03-29
   soldstatus $360,000
7. 2010-01-11
   soldstatus $63,000
8. 2005-01-05
   soldstatus $1,180,000
9. 2003-12-18
   soldstatus $194,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,032
• − Property taxes: −$5,632
• − Insurance: −$1,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$10,923
• Taxable loss: −$14,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,534
• Household income: $80,553
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 545.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.36%
• Current HPI: 297.3707
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $375,472 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,180,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $194,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.