5831 Congress St · Midway, FL 32563

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1984 9,583 sqft lot Est $118k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWNER SAID THE TRAILER HOUSE IS AS IS WHERE IS w/NO REPAIRS OR IMPROVEMENTS MADE BY THE SELLER, & CONVEYS AT THE PURCHASE PRICE WITH NO WARRANTY WHATSOEVER // WATER TAP FEE IS PAID; $70 TRANSFER FEE TO CHANGE THE WATER SERVICE INTO YOUR NAME: 850.932.5188 // ON SEPTIC // BUYER PAYS SURVEY COST, IF ONE IS REQUIRED //

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Great location
• Outdoor living

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: Located in the EAST BAY HEIGHTS subdivision

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home, single-story; Built in 1984
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.22 acres with dimensions 62 x 115 x 105 x 126; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Master bedroom on the first floor; All listed rooms are on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window heat
• Interior features: Heating available (wall/window units)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Primary School (723 students, 39% FRL); Jay High School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 512 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $145k implies a 1015% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,810
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5827 Capitol Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	784 (+2%)	10mo	$65,000	$83	79
1830 Justice Cir	0.19mi	2/1.0	672 (-13%)	12mo	$110,000	$164	60
1879 Justice Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	854 (+11%)	10mo	$130,500	$153	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,781
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $52,947
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $973/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $474	+0% $433	+5% $392	+10% $350
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $366	+0% $433	+5% $499	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $506	-0.5pp $469	base $433	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$973
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$717
• After-tax cash flow: $4,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2800.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $145,000 ECAR
• 2016-04-22 Sold (MLS) $13,000 PARMLS
• 2016-04-19 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2015-10-18 Listed $19,990 PARMLS
• 2015-03-09 Listed $19,990 PARMLS
• 2004-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $973 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.