202 Avenue P NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$5,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1952 5,227 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Additional Updates made in March 2020! NO HOA!!! Beautifully Renovated 3 Bedroom & 2 bathroom Home with a 1 car garage that is minutes from shopping and dining. Step inside and find a Large Living Room with Luxury Plank Flooring. The Kitchen includes White Soft Close Cabinetry, Granite Counters, & Stainless Steel Appliances. The Dining Room is to the right of the home and has ample space for hosting dinner. Also on the right side is an area for an office and the Master Bedroom with a remodeled bathroom. This split floor plan has the two other bedrooms at the far left of the home. The guest bathroom was also remodeled with attractive features. SELLER WILL PROVIDE TERMITE BOND.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RP

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Construction details: see remarks; Other roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 1
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 32.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 305.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 1067.44%
• DSCR: 48.49
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 56.05×
• Total profit: $77,076
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 117.78×
• Total profit: $163,489
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $44

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,249	-5% $1,247	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,244	+10% $1,242
Rent	-10% $1,117	-5% $1,181	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,309	+10% $1,373
Rate	-1.0pp $1,248	-0.5pp $1,247	base $1,245	+0.5pp $1,244	+1.0pp $1,243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	24d	1	0.14mi
235 Palmetto Ave NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,195	$1.17	24d	1	0.18mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	0.21mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	24d	1	0.22mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	0.30mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	24d	1	0.31mi
1200 6th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,585	$1.29	15d	1	0.50mi
700 Mirror Ter NW #705 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,500	$1.26	3d	1	0.58mi
140 W Avenue Northwest Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.59mi
207 S Lake Silver Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,399	$1.25	24d	1	0.63mi
720 6th St NW Unit 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$700	$0.95	24d	1	0.73mi
720 6th St NW Unit 1 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$750	$1.01	24d	1	0.74mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	24d	1	0.78mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	24d	1	0.83mi
136 Avenue C NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,099	$1.47	24d	1	0.92mi
1331 11th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,190	$1.82	24d	1	0.95mi
430 Avenue B NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	866	$1,275	$1.47	24d	1	1.01mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	15d	1	1.06mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	3d	1	1.08mi
163 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	854	$1,250	$1.46	24d	1	1.15mi
103 4th St SE Unit A Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,399	$1.38	3d	1	1.16mi
407 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,700	$1.51	24d	1	1.16mi
2000 15th Ct NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,395	$1.86	3d	1	1.21mi
209 Avenue B SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	15d	1	1.21mi
240 2nd St SW #201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,725	$1.39	24d	1	1.24mi
151 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	819	$1,300	$1.59	24d	1	1.32mi
200 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,950	$2.29	3d	12	1.36mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 101 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	24d	1	1.38mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 102 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	1.38mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 203 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	3d	1	1.38mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	3d	1	1.38mi
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	15d	1	1.41mi
106 Avenue D SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,600	$1.74	3d	1	1.41mi
332 Avenue D SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	3d	1	1.43mi
265 East St Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$2,250	$2.97	3d	41	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   remarks 301-char remark
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$25
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $15,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,793
• After-tax cash flow: $11,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.2% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-20 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-16 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-23 Price Changed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-04 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-06 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-25 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-18 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-15 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-03 Price Changed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-17 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-17 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-22 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,118 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.