26 Leisure Hill Rd · Union Gap, WA 98903

$35,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1979 $30/sqft · 46% below area Est $64k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller! Enjoy peaceful living with scenic views in this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a welcoming 55+ community, offering 1,152 square feet of comfortable space to relax and unwind. This is a wonderful opportunity to make it your own, with lot rent that includes water, sewer, garbage, and snow removal, plus access to the clubhouse and recreation room. Perfect for embracing easy, low-maintenance living and a strong sense of community.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Recreation room
• Scenic views

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS
• CLUBHOUSE
• RECREATION ROOM
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.2% vs local median 4.5% in Union Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#315 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Union Gap School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 135.37%
• DSCR: 7.02
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,450
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -45.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $64,746
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.01×
• Total profit: $147,076
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98903

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $192/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $1,105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $271

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,115	+0% $1,105	+5% $1,096	+10% $1,086
Rent	-10% $974	-5% $1,040	+0% $1,105	+5% $1,171	+10% $1,237
Rate	-1.0pp $1,123	-0.5pp $1,114	base $1,105	+0.5pp $1,096	+1.0pp $1,087

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $35,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $35,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-04-28
   price $42,000 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Motivated seller! Enjoy peaceful living with scenic views in this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a welcoming 55+ community, offering 1,152 square feet of comfortable space to relax and unwind. This is a wonderful opportunity to make it your own, with lot rent that includes water, sewer, garbage, and snow removal, plus access to the clubhouse and recreation room. Perfect for embracing easy, low-maintenance living and a strong sense of community.

7. 2026-04-03
   listed $45,000 Active 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Motivated seller! Enjoy peaceful living with scenic views in this inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a welcoming 55+ community, offering 1,152 square feet of comfortable space to relax and unwind. This is a wonderful opportunity to make it your own, with lot rent that includes water, sewer, garbage, and snow removal, plus access to the clubhouse and recreation room. Perfect for embracing easy, low-maintenance living and a strong sense of community.

8. 2025-06-23
   listed $49,995 Active
9. 2025-02-27
   price $49,995
10. 2025-01-22
    price $55,000
11. 2025-01-14
    price $60,000
12. 2024-12-20
    listed $65,000 Active
13. 2024-04-23
    listed $65,000 Active
14. 2022-05-23
    soldstatus $50,000
15. 2022-05-02
    listed $48,700
16. 2015-04-27
    soldstatus $20,000
17. 2014-12-05
    listed $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 78.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$192
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $13,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,238
• After-tax cash flow: $10,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Gap School District
• NCES district ID: 5309150
• Math proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,603
• Composite: 48.54/100
• National rank: #4614
• State rank: #105 of 291 in WA

Livability — Union Gap

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #11294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union Gap, WA
• Population (ZIP): 19,010

Population outlook (Yakima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 256,514 people
• By 2030: 259,403 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 265,677 · +3.6%
• By 2050: 273,061 · +6.5%
• By 2075: 296,991 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 315,291 · +22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 19% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yakima

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 41.6% · R 55.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.90%
• Current HPI: 300.5753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+90.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $42,000 YAMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $45,000 YAMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $49,995 YAMLS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $49,995 YAMLS
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $55,000 YAMLS
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $60,000 YAMLS
• 2024-12-20 Listed $65,000 YAMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listed $65,000 YAMLS
• 2022-05-23 Sold (MLS) $50,000 YAMLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $48,700 YAMLS
• 2015-04-27 Sold (MLS) $20,000 YAMLS
• 2014-12-05 Listed $22,000 YAMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $192 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.