126 Deer Trl · Pocono Ranch Lands, PA 18328

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 0.45 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

TO TAKE AUTO /TOUR CLICK ON ARROW TRIANGLEBI-LEVEL BORDER STATE LANDOn a level landscaped parcel backing on State Land, close to pool, lake access, sports fields , tennis features Hardwood floors, Bright Living Room with Brick Fireplace, Picture Window, 4 Split AC/Heat units, Country Kitchen with Refrigerator Dishwasher and Range plus Dining with glass doors to large covered porch and deck, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, large family room, laundry with washer & dryer, ground level entrance and More.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Pool access
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• LANDSCAPED PARCEL
• POOL ACCESS
• LAKE ACCESS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• COUNTRY KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: fishing, tennis courts, pool, playground, gated access, lake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee of $1,200 (also listed as a one-time $1,200); Derived monthly equivalent fee of $100; Association amenities include beach rights, trails, security, tennis courts, seasonal pond, parking, gated access

Exterior

• Parking: Association-managed parking
• Security: Gated community; Community security (association)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank (mound septic); 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential zoning
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Storage; Asphalt road surface; Road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Built-in range
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Storage; Built-in electric range; Built-in range; Washer/Dryer
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer/Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,037 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $250k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,450 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,996
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Deer Trl	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+6%)	4mo	$135,000	$134	81
104 Quail Ct	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (-7%)	6mo	$159,000	$179	64
107 Partridge Ct	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-4%)	5mo	$159,000	$174	63
158 Mountain Lake Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-9%)	23mo	$130,000	$150	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $116,800
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $359,384
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,438/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $196,107

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-234	+0% $-305	+5% $-376	+10% $-447
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-380	+0% $-305	+5% $-230	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-241	base $-305	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 497-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,438 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,694 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,438
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Ranch Lands

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1037
• US rank: #11566

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $250,000 PWMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $25,000 PWMLS
• 2020-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,438 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.