70 Straight Path · North Sea, NY 11968

$1,595,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2003 0.77 ac lot Est $1196k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Southampton Traditional - Minutes from the Village Just four minutes from the heart of Southampton Village-with its charming boutiques, acclaimed dining, and world-famous ocean beaches-this newly listed residence offers the perfect blend of sophistication, comfort, and possibility. Set on . 77 of an acre, the thoughtfully designed and renovated, approximately 2,700-square-foot home welcomes you with spacious interiors and timeless details. The main level features a bright eat-in kitchen, a formal dining room or den, and a grand living room-an inviting space for gathering and entertaining. With four bedrooms and three baths arranged across two levels, the floor plan provides both privacy and

Key facts

• Grand living room
• Formal dining room
• Generous landing

Tags

• MINUTES FROM THE VILLAGE
• BRIGHT EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GRAND LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUS LANDING
• LARGE FINISHED ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,564/mo this rent would consume 143% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $447k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $1.59M implies a 885% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,499,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.79%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,196,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1610 Majors Path	0.74mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,700 (+13%)	7mo	$1,350,000	$500	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $71,929
• Equity at exit: $237,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $809,029
• Equity at exit: $137,906

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11968

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,994 /mo · $23,925/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,898
• Net cashflow: $3,643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,953

Max offer price $1,595,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Old Fish Cove Rd Unit 1512341P Southampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2497	$25,322	$10.14	22d	1	0.18mi
14 Millstone Dr Unit 1520127P Southampton, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$18,488	$10.74	22d	1	0.37mi
62 Waters Edge Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.0	3100	$20,000	$6.45	11d	1	0.55mi
18 Knoll Rd Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	3200	$40,000	$12.50	22d	1	0.69mi
29 Missapoque Ave Southampton, NY	4.0	2.0	1934	$8,000	$4.14	43d	1	0.75mi
15 Lake View Ct Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	43d	1	0.83mi
286 Towd Point Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.0	1825	$30,000	$16.44	43d	1	0.96mi
99 Turtle Cove Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	1.0	2205	$45,000	$20.41	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-24
   price $1,595,000
3. 2025-09-20
   listed $1,749,000 Active
4. 2001-04-11
   soldstatus $162,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $222,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$23,925
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,821
• − Management: −$17,821
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable income: $19,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,675
• After-tax cash flow: $39,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,312
• Household income: $156,219
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 274.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.86%
• Current HPI: 461.1144
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.62%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+884.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Listed $1,749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,102 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.