3515 Shelby Cir Unit A/B · Houston, TX 77051

$515,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,032 sqft · MultiFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot Est $546k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Modern duplex featuring two spacious 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath units with contemporary finishes throughout. Each unit offers an open-concept living and dining area, granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, vinyl plank flooring, central A/C and heating, and a fenced backyard. Conveniently located with easy access to I-610, Hwy 288, Downtown Houston, the Medical Center, and Hobby Airport. Unit A is currently tenant occupied at $1,900/month, providing immediate rental income for investors.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Open-concept living
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property; 2 total units
• Construction: Built in 2022; Composition roof
• Exterior features: 5,000 sq ft lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $515k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $94/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $474k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,744/mo this rent would consume 152% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $144k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $474,400 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $545,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8019 Grandview St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,984 (-2%)	3mo	$564,900	$189	68
3920 Aledo St Unit A-B	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,000 (-1%)	3mo	$545,000	$182	66
8218 Lawler St	0.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,474 (+15%)	6mo	$585,000	$168	57
8310 Mariah St Unit A/B	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,884 (-5%)	4mo	$515,000	$179	56
8132 Brandon St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	3,276 (+8%)	9mo	$589,000	$180	54
8306 Comal St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	3,480 (+15%)	6mo	$599,900	$172	50
8022 Corinth St Unit A-B	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,600 (-14%)	1mo	$494,900	$190	49
4212 Sterling St Unit A/B	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,712 (-11%)	2mo	$370,000	$136	45
7814 Gladstone St Unit A/B	0.55mi	4/2.0	3,460 (+14%)	1mo	$335,000	$97	42
3923 Aledo St Unit A-B	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,600 (-14%)	2mo	$479,900	$185	42
4309 Shelby Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,656 (-12%)	1mo	$540,000	$203	42
4417 Aledo St	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,476 (+15%)	7mo	$579,000	$167	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $301,171
• Equity at exit: $463,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $896,336
• Equity at exit: $1,000,532

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 18.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$644 /mo · $7,725/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,505

Max offer price $515,000

Occupancy floor 91%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2.5	$4,744
Total (2 units)			$4,744

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $515,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $515,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $515,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $515,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 515-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $515,000 Active 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$7,725
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,554
• − Management: −$4,554
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$6,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,514
• After-tax cash flow: $3,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern duplex is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers spacious living areas and contemporary finishes, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $515,000 HARMLS