The Davenport II Plan · Alvin, TX 77511

$277,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily · 299 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Davenport II offers expansive single level living space with so much flexibility. When entering the front of the home you'll have the choice of a living room, study or dining room. The spacious kitchen opens up to the family room with a large kitchen island, perfect to gather round. If you don't need 4 bedrooms, you may choose to build the home with 3 and use the flex area for a hobby space. If you need more bedrooms or just wish to have a loft, you may choose to add the optional bonus which can be configured as a large entertaining area or as a loft with additional 5th bedroom and full bathroom.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Flex area
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• FLEX AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,436.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 948 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,000 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,436
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -7.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 Kendall Crest Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	8mo	$307,642	$168	83
5194 Kendall Cove Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,992 (+6%)	6mo	$315,000	$158	75
4724 Alluvial Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,875 (-0%)	9mo	$315,000	$168	72
415 Kendall Crest Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-9%)	11mo	$293,250	$172	69
368 Selah Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-3%)	11mo	$302,760	$166	69
5307 Cascade Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (-2%)	11mo	$299,900	$163	62
4710 Lake Rim Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,090 (+11%)	3mo	$289,000	$138	59
341 Lake Line Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+6%)	2mo	$299,900	$150	58
4706 Alluvial Cir	0.42mi	4/2.0	2,078 (+11%)	8mo	$289,900	$140	56
5307 Camerford Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-11%)	10mo	$289,900	$173	50
5321 Latigo Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (-9%)	10mo	$288,060	$169	49
383 Ward Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-10%)	5mo	$260,000	$153	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,476
• Equity at exit: $44,796

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-104,863
• Equity at exit: $25,976

Cash invested: $84,122 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,000 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77511

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 948
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,507/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,783

Max offer price $247,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-262	+0% $-366	+5% $-470	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-549	-5% $-457	+0% $-366	+5% $-274	+10% $-182
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-289	base $-366	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,109
• Closing costs: $9,013
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5322 Camerford Ct Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,100	$1.01	10d	1	0.36mi
5323 Camerford Ct Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,200	$1.73	0d	1	0.39mi
199 County Road 294 Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	2096	$2,049	$0.98	148d	1	0.67mi
376 Henry St Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	1849	$2,115	$1.14	113d	1	0.69mi
5224 McGrath Dr Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,100	$1.20	152d	1	0.81mi
144 Fox Meadow Dr Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,587	$0.94	10d	1	1.18mi
141 Fox Meadow Dr Alvin, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,428	$1.11	10d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $277,990 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $277,990 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $277,990 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $277,990 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $277,990 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $277,990 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $277,990 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $277,990 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $277,990 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 284 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 283 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 282 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 281 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 280 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $277,990 Active 279 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 278 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $277,990 Active 277 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 276 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 275 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $277,990 Active 274 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 273 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $277,990 Active 272 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 271 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $277,990 Active 270 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $277,990 Active 269 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 268 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $277,990 Active 267 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $277,990 Active 266 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 265 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 264 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 263 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 262 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $277,990 Active 261 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 260 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 259 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 258 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 257 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 256 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $277,990 Active 255 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 254 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 253 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 252 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 251 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 250 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $277,990 Active 249 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,829
• − Property taxes: −$4,507
• − Insurance: −$2,970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$8,740
• Taxable loss: −$9,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,318
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Davenport II is a well-maintained single-family home with good condition and potential for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can improve energy efficiency and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alvin, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,892
• Household income: $74,939
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 21% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.72%
• Current HPI: 278.5745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $277,990 Zillow